A New Arms Race in Eastern and Northern Europe
U.S. Air Force 510th Fighter Squadron F-16
fighters are seen parked on tarmac in Amari air
base March 26, 2015
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Professor of Foreign Regions Chair at Russian State University for Humanities, Expert on history of CEE countries
Russia's European neighbors are increasing their defense budgets, which is quite logical because Ukraine is on fire and many are wary of Moscow. A new arms race in Eastern and Northern Europe is looming, although limited in scale. This April, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute issued a report claiming that the Baltic, Central and Northern European countries will engage in increased military spending. They are eagerly justifying this drive based on developments in southeastern Ukraine and fears of further Russian actions. What would happen if any of these countries becomes the next victim after Ukraine?
Russia's European neighbors are increasing their defense budgets, which is quite logical because Ukraine is on fire and many are wary of Moscow. A new arms race in Eastern and Northern Europe is looming, although limited in scale.
This April, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute issued a report [1] claiming that the Baltic, Central and Northern European countries will engage in increased military spending. They are eagerly justifying this drive based on developments in southeastern Ukraine and fears of further Russian actions. What would happen if any of these countries becomes the next victim after Ukraine?
These moves are far from encouraging because arms races never improve mutual understanding between states. But the report did not make the news, with tensions in recent years flaring up in Northern and Central Europe from time to time and belligerent statements from Russia and the West increasingly growing in number. And Ukraine has at last provided the top military brass with an excellent chance to assert their importance.
The mini-arms race in the Baltic was launched in April 2004 when Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined NATO. As a matter of fact, the alliance was strengthened by the non-signees of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), which means they may any time deploy unlimited weapons as close as 200 kilometers from St. Petersburg. Of course, the Baltic politicians cited the threat from Russia.
The development was followed by a several-year-long discussion of the deployment of missile defense in Poland and Czech Republic. Most Czechs did not support American radar on their territory (61 against 25 percent), while the Poles welcomed the idea with the figure of 60 versus 35 percent [2]. The South Ossetian war of 2008 compelled Sweden to support higher defense spending [3], with the Russian threat once again used as a pretext. Both Sweden and neighboring Finland enhanced their cooperation with NATO [4], with pro-alliance sentiments on the rise in both these still neutral countries.
Russia was not sitting idle as well. In 2007, President Putin's Munich address was followed by Russia's suspension of the CFE and the deployment of Iskander missile systems in Kaliningrad Region. Russian military exercises were implemented more frequently [5], while Russian airplanes extended their reach from the Baltic to Canada and even to Guam in the Pacific. Finally, in March 2015, Russia pulled out of the CFE Treaty in order to deploy unlimited weapons at its western borders.
In quiet times, the military found it very hard to substantiate higher defense spending, with greater sums going to health and welfare. But the time has come for the population to approve the government’s decisions. According to surveys, over 75 percent of Poles and over 50 percent of Baltic populations (of course, minus Russian speakers) seriously fear a Russian invasion [6]. Alarm is also being felt by majorities in Sweden and Finland, while the Czechs and Hungarians are experiencing trepidation. Hence, the time for increasing military budgets is ripe.
Yuri Nadtochei:
Farewell to Arms: CFE Treaty and Russia’s
Withdrawal
People in the former Socialist countries are still afraid of a Russian occupation, with fears especially strong in Poland and in the Baltic. Some time ago, Moscow also bickered with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Finland. Moreover, the U.S. defense budget is limited in being able to protect all its NATO allies.
According to The New York Times, the United States provides about 75 percent of NATO military spending, whereas in recent years, the Europeans have been largely cutting their defense allocations. Hence, this is the right time for them to build up their contributions. In September 2014, the newspaper wrote that Europeans should do more, including more defense outlays and the approval of Russia sanctions to force Putin to change its dangerous policy towards Ukraine [7]. These appeals appear to have been heard and certain processes are underway.
Russian citizens are now also more receptive to the defense spending appeals. The Americans are in the Baltic and training the Ukrainians near Lvov. The time has come for action, with both sides plunging in phobias and fears, thereby increasing their weapons budgets. With no Ukraine solution on the horizon, the Central and Northern Europeans will not be able to relax, but rather will go forward with the arms race.
1. 13 Apr. 2015: US military spending falls, increases in Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia says SIPRI/ Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 13 April, 2015/ http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/2015/milex-april-2015
2. Většina lidí by radar odmítla, zjistil průzkum/ Novinky.Cz, 2. března 2007, http://www.novinky.cz/domaci/110690-vetsina-lidi-by-radar-odmitla-zjistil-pruzkum.html Poláci a USA podepsali dohodu o štítu/ iHNed.Cz, 21.8.2008/ http://archiv.ihned.cz/c1-26585560-polaci-a-usa-podepsali-dohodu-o-stitu
3. Balmasov S., Trukhachev V., Sweden: We are for Peace and Preparing for War/ Pravda.ru, May 4, 2010/ http://www.pravda.ru/world/europe/european/04-05-2010/1027259-0/ (in Russian)
4. Russia Encircled by Friends: Sweden and Finland are Eying NATO Membership/ RIA Novosti, September 3, 2014/ (in Russian) http://ria.ru/world/20140903/1022627620.html#ixzz3YjiacAlAhttp://ria.ru/world/20140903/1022627620.html
5. Iskanders in Kaliningrad Deployed One Year Ago/ Izvestia, December 16, 2013/ http://izvestia.ru/news/562574 (in Russian)
6. 47 proc. Polaków uważa, że niepodległość Polski jest zagrożona. Sondaż CBOS/ Wiadomości.Pl,17.04.2014/ http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/1,114871,15816946,47_proc__Polakow_uwaza__ze_niepodleglosc_Polski_jest.html?lokale=trojmiasto; Polacy o stosunkach polsko-rosyjskich/ CBOS/
http://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/news/2014/19/newsletter.php
55.5 percent of Lithuanians See Russia as a Threat/ Voyennoye Obozrenie, October 27, 2014/ http://topwar.ru/61268-555-litovcev-schitayut-chto-litve-ugrozhaet-rossiya.html (in Russian)
Survey: 64 of Latvians See Russia as a Threat to Independence/ Focus.Lv, September 23, 2014/ http://ru.focus.lv/latvija/sabiedriba/sociolog-64-latyshey-vidyat-v-rossii-ugrozu-nezavisimosti
7. See: NATO Summit in Wales: How to Clip Putin's Wings?/ Inopressa, September 3, 2014/ http://www.inopressa.ru/article/03sep2014/inotheme/nato_putin.html (in Russian)
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