Electing the UN Secretary-General: Equation with One Unknown
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PhD in Political Science
Ban Ki-moon’s term as Secretary-General of the United Nations expires in 2016 and the world community will have to elect a new chief executive of the Organization. In accordance with the informal rotation rule, the Eastern European Group believes that it is its turn to put a candidate forward. Indeed, throughout the entire history of the United Nations, the Eastern European Group is the only one of the five regional groups to not have had one of its representatives hold the post of Secretary-General.
Ban Ki-moon’s term as Secretary-General of the United Nations expires in 2016 and the world community will have to elect a new chief executive of the Organization.
During its 70-year history, the United Nations has introduced a number of changes to the procedure for electing its Secretary-General. In the latest change, member states were invited to nominate candidates for the post of Secretary-General by way of an official joint letter from the President of the General Assembly and the President of the Security Council addressed to all the Permanent Representatives to the United Nations, as well as observer states, on December 15, 2015.
In accordance with the informal rotation rule, the Eastern European Group believes that it is its turn to put a candidate forward. Indeed, throughout the entire history of the United Nations, the Eastern European Group is the only one of the five regional groups to not have had one of its representatives hold the post of Secretary-General.
Еhroughout the entire history of the United Nations to not have had one of its representatives hold the post of Secretary-General.
Three Secretaries-General – Kurt Waldheim of Austria (1972–1981), Dag Dag Hammarskjöld of Sweden (1953–1961) and Norway’s Trygve Lie (1946–1952) – have represented the Western European and Others Group; two – Ban Ki-moon of the Republic of Korea (2007–present) and U Thant of Burma (now Myanmar, 1961–1971) – have represented the Asia-Pacific Group; two – Kofi Annan of Ghana (1997–2006) and Egypt’s Boutros Boutros-Ghali (1992–1996) – have represented the African Group; and Javier Pérez de Cuéllar of Peru (1982–1991) has represented the Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC).
The current official contenders for the high international post include Irina Bokova (Bulgaria), Natalia Gherman (Moldova), António Gutteres (Portugal), Srgjan Kerim (Macedonia), Helen Clark (New Zealand), Igor Lukšić (Montenegro), Vesna Pusić (Croatia) and Danilo Türk (Slovenia). Information on the candidates is posted on the UN site. For the first time in history they will take part in informal dialogues in New York on April 12–14 in front of the representatives of the member countries attending the UN General Assembly session (link in Russian). This marks a huge step forward in terms of making the procedure for electing the Secretary-General more transparent. On June 3, they will take part in a debate at the Central Lobby of the Palace of Westminster in London, where the first UN Secretary-General Trygve Lie was elected in 1946 (link in Russian). There have recently been more and more voices in favour of electing a woman as Secretary-General.
For the first time in history they will take part in This marks a huge step forward in terms of making the procedure for electing the Secretary-General more transparent.
Russia, as a permanent member of the Security Council and a representative of the Eastern European Group, is expected to have a big say in appointing the new UN Secretary-General. In this context, many experts have pointed to the current Director-General of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Irina Bokova, as Russia’s preferred candidate. A graduate and Honorary Doctor of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), she speaks excellent Russian and maintains close contacts with Russia in her activities, especially on such topical issues as the protection of the cultural heritage in the conflict zones in Iraq and Syria. As well as being the first woman to head up UNESCO, Irina Bokova has other trump cards: she has enormous experience working as an international civil servant, has held the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria and has brilliant command of four of the six official UN languages (Russian, French, Spanish and English).
The Balkan countries also have some strong candidates. First among them is Danilo Türk, who served as President of Slovenia in 2007–2012, and who has considerable experience working at the UN. At the peak of his UN career in 2000–2005, he was UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs. Incidentally, like Irina Bokova, he also holds an Honorary Doctorate from MGIMO.
Srgjan Kerim has extensive diplomatic experience, having served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Macedonia, as well as the country’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2001–2003. He had the honour of being President of the 62nd General Assembly of the UN in 2007–2008.
A strong challenge to the men could come from the former foreign minister of Croatia, Vesna Pusić (however, it is rumoured at the United Nations that her candidacy may be withdrawn as she was put forward as a candidate by the previous Croatian government, and the new cabinet plans on nullifying her nomination) (link in Russian).
Many experts have pointed to Irina Bokova, as Russia’s preferred candidate.
Experts believe that Igor Lukšić, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Montenegro, is the least likely of the “Balkan” cohort to be elected.
Another representative of the Eastern European Group, the former Deputy Prime Minister and current Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova, Natalia Gherman, has the “gender factor” going for her. The website supporting her candidacy points out that, as a rule, candidates elected to the post of UN Secretary-General have been compromise figures not very well known internationally, and she is probably counting on this (link in Russian).
The candidacies of Antonio Gutteres and Helen Clark were the last to be announced, which bears out the thesis that certain circles would like to see a representative of the Western European and Others Group as the UN Secretary-General.
Special mention should be made of the candidates from the Western European and Others Group – the political heavyweights António Guterres and Helen Clark. Both have enviable experience as prime ministers of their respective countries and UN officials. Antonio Gutteres has been the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees for the past ten years, and Helen Clark was the first woman to become the head of the UN Development Programme in 2009.
As the elections draw nearer, the number of candidates is likely to grow. The UN Security Council is expected to start discussing the candidates no later than July, and before that time “surprises” cannot be ruled out. Mention has already been made of the presidents of Lithuania and Chile, Dalia Grybauskaitė, and Michelle Bachelet, former prime ministers of Australia and Denmark, Kevin Rudd and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia Miroslav Lajčák and his predecessor Ján Kubiš all having their respective candidacies put forward (all links in Russian).
It is notable that the candidacies of Antonio Gutteres and Helen Clark were the last to be announced, which bears out the thesis that certain circles would like to see a representative of the Western European and Others Group as the UN Secretary-General. As pointed out above, there is no hard-and-fast rule of rotation for the post of Secretary-General among regional groups and, as past experience shows, that rule is not always followed to the full.
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