Russia-U.S. Relations in the Ukrainian Context

After President Vladimir Putin signed the treaty on Crimea's accession to Russia on March 18, 2014 the imposition of U.S. and EU sanctions against Moscow has become more likely. We have met Vladimir Baranovsky, RAS Academician and RIAC Member, Valery Garbuzov, Deputy Director of RAS Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, and Sergey Kulik, Director for International Development at the Institute for Contemporary Development to obtain their views on the future of Russian-American relations and U.S. strategy on the settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

After President Vladimir Putin signed the treaty on Crimea's accession to Russia on March18, 2014 the imposition of U.S. and EU sanctions against Moscow has become more likely. We have met Vladimir Baranovsky, Deputy Director of RAS Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS Academician and RIAC Member, Valery Garbuzov, Deputy Director of RAS Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, and Sergey Kulik, Director for International Development at the Institute for Contemporary Development to obtain their views on the future of Russian-American relations and U.S. strategy on the settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

Vladimir Baranovsky: The situation might trigger a more profound dialogue, unknown before the Ukraine predicament

Sergey Kulik: The list of sanctions provides the president with a lot of room for toughening his stance

Valery Garbuzov: Russia and the United States will hardly become strategic partners in settling the Ukraine crisis

Vladimir Baranovsky

Vladimir Baranovsky: The situation might trigger a more profound dialogue, unknown before the Ukraine predicament

Deputy Director of RAS Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS Academician and RIAC Member

Any crisis, even the most acute one, has a positive side as it makes the parties involved mobilize resources and search for a way out. For the time being, we are facing serious problems in our relations with the United States and Europe, and there is a looming possibility of sanctions and subsequent degradation of Russia's ties with them. At the same time, the situation might trigger a more profound dialogue, unknown before the Ukraine predicament. Equally significant and meaningful, appropriate efforts should have been made before the trouble blew up.

Now the environment seems adverse as it is aggravated by short-lived situational aspects. The thing to be done now is mobilization and concentration on the heart of the matter, which means preventing the domination of these momentary concerns, so that we could see the perspective and Russia's strategic goals. As a matter of fact, both in relations with Ukraine and the United States there are some critical issues of utmost urgency.

Sergey Kulik

Sergey Kulik: The list of sanctions provides the president with a lot of room for toughening his stance

Director for International Development at the Institute for Contemporary Development

When Viktor Yanukovich was ready to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in Vilnius, and Brussels was seemingly getting the upper hand, the United States emanated signals that Europeans must be unilaterally responsible for the act, letting everyone know that should Ukraine run into problems about human rights and political or other reforms, Washington would watch and use only legitimate methods.

But Mr. Yanukovich did not sign the agreement albeit the unrest in Ukraine. So the Americans had to jump in for serious to help out the Europeans. Washington's involvement only grew when Russia stepped in.

In other words, when Ukraine was leaning to the Western course of development, the United States was staying aside. But as soon as Kiev shed the Association Agreement, Washington joined the show.

Besides, there has been some rebalancing within the U.S. establishment, as pro-Russian figures are now on the sidelines, just like pro-American leaders in Russia. As a result, Mr. Obama may become hostage to the situation – even unwilling to take more substantive measures, he will have to act. His current black list contains a number of traps quite unpleasant for Russia. If read more attentively, the list provides the president with a lot of room for toughening his stance.

Examine the March 17 executive order to see that the term “persons” is clarified to include both individuals and organizations. Also clarified is the meaning of Russian and U.S. government.

The document covers issues related with the defense sector, which implies that the United States may impose sanctions in the technology area, and not necessarily in military technologies.

The wording is now vague but if things go worse and no additional agreements are reached, all of these seemingly soft although veiled entries could burst into harsh action.

Valery Garbuzov

Valery Garbuzov: Russia and the United States will hardly become strategic partners in settling the Ukraine crisis

Deputy Director of RAS Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies

The Ukraine conundrum is still evolving, with many things changing before our eyes. Hence, it seems too early to speak of any kind of U.S. strategy. So far, we are facing calibrated reactive sanctions toward certain Russian foreign policy figures.

I believe Washington will need some time to elaborate a strategy, apparently a mix of political and economic sanctions.

As a result, Russia and the United States will hardly become strategic partners in settling the Ukraine crisis. It seems more likely that there will be a strategic confrontation with selective cooperation in areas indispensable for both countries, such as economy and matters related to regional conflicts.

I don't think fencing Russia up to complete isolation is feasible. More sensible appears a combination of sanctions and selective cooperation.
What is important is the future Russia's foreign policy, i.e. whether Crimea means launching the process of amalgamating Russian-speaking minorities and territories or it is an exclusive case.

Anyway, the response of the generally flexible Obama administration is focused on sanctions. The point is in the future under a Republican administration, since the GOP has always sported hard-line approaches and its words are usually supported by deeds. To this end, Mr. Obama is their antithesis. The Republicans have always criticized him for softness, spinelessness and weakness. Now they add that Mr. Putin and Russia are taking advantage of his flaws.

See also:

• The G8 Summit 2014 in Sochi. Perspectives after Situation in Ukraine
• Ukraine crisis. The Reaction of Neighboring Countries
• Russian – Ukrainian Relations. A View from Ukraine
• The Future of Eastern Partnership. RIAC experts' comments