Russian-African relations in ten years: a new start

In the late 80s - early 90s of the last century, Russian and international media created a myth that gained ground due to our own ignorance and prejudices. The myth goes as follows: Russia does not need Africa. Africa has fallen into a black hole of eternal backwardness, crisis and conflicts, and is of no interest to us as a partner.

Until recently, Africa was poorly represented in macro-economic forecasting and research, especially in terms of Russian-African relations. In the late 80s - early 90s of the last century, Russian and international media created a myth that gained ground due to our own ignorance and prejudices. The myth goes as follows: Russia does not need Africa. Africa has fallen into a black hole of eternal backwardness, crisis and conflicts, and is of no interest to us as a partner. Since then, this belief has lost much of its credibility, and there are good reasons to count on its sinking into oblivion by the end of the second decade of this century.

Currently, the scope for Russian-African partnership is significantly expanding. This process is unlikely to end in breakthroughs, but there is little doubt that Russia will try hard to restore its full-scale cooperation with African countries, the success of which would assist the mutual interests of both sides and contribute to the establishment of a just and multipolar world order under the complex and contradictory conditions of the 21st century.

Africa is needed for Africans, Russia and the world

George Friedman in his futurological book The Next Decade calls Africa “a place to leave alone” [1]. He argues that “Africa will sort itself out into a small number of major powers and a large number of lesser ones. These will provide the framework for economic development and, over generations, create nations that might become global powers...” [2] In his opinion, “…the most likely path is several generations of warfare, out of which will grow a continent where nations are forged into states with legitimacy. As harsh as it may sound, nations are born in conflict… Nation building does not take place at World Bank meetings or during the building of schools by foreign military engineers, because actual nations are built in blood. Africa’s wars cannot be prevented.” [3]

Today the African continent accounts for only 3.5-4% of greenhouse gas emissions, while it is the African rainforest along with the Brazilian and the Russian one that is attenuating the negative effects of these emissions.

Photo: www.mearketing.com
Африка. Инфографика

Though such scenarios are quite feasible, particularly in certain regions, we do believe that this forecast underestimates the impact of globalization processes, which “turn the world into one village.” Today it is clear more than ever that the destiny of mankind and that of Africa and the Africans are interconnected.

The international community cannot ignore the continent of about 30.3 million km² (22 percent of the total land area) with the population rapidly approaching 1.5 billion people (in 2020, 16 out 100 inhabitants of the planet will be an African, including 13 people from the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa) [4], which plays a key role in providing the global economy with raw material resources and is an important participant in shaping adequate responses to global challenges and threats. The significance of Africa in solving the problems of climate change, increased water scarcity, pollution of environment, etc. is on the rise too. Today the African continent accounts for only 3.5-4% of greenhouse gas emissions, while it is the African rainforest along with the Brazilian and the Russian one that is attenuating the negative effects of these emissions. Meanwhile, global warming is accompanied by growing deforestation and desertification, exacerbating the problem of food security in the world.

As far as the issue of international migration is concerned, which is becoming more pressing against the background of contradictory world demographic processes, it should be noted that the number of migrants in Western Europe from Sub-Saharan Africa exceeds 15 million people. Africans make up the majority of the 15-18 million Muslims (by 2025 their number is expected to total 25 million) living in Western Europe (including 5 million in France, 1 million in Italy, 1.8 million in the UK, and 350 thousand in Switzerland) [5].

Great changes have taken place within the socio-economic development of Africa, and even more are expected in the coming decades. On the eve of the 2008 crisis, the continent's economic growth rate has reached almost 6%, while in 13 countries – between 6% and 11% (Angola, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of Congo, Liberia, Libya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, and Ethiopia). The GDP of African nations (PPP in U.S. dollars, 2005) is estimated to increase from 2.7 trillion dollars in 2010 to 4.6 trillion in 2020 and to 19.3 trillion in 2050; or in per capita terms – from 2,653 U.S. dollars to 3,618 and 8,800 U.S. dollars respectively [6]. By 2033, African GDP will reach in volume that of Eastern Europe, including Russia, and by 2039 – that of Latin America [7].

In the past decade, Africa’s involvement in world politics and economics has increased substantially, with a marked tendency towards greater engagement in the global political and economic space and global information and communications networks.

The level of priority for the Russian-African partnership is bound to increase

Russia has officially declared promoting relations with Africa a priority goal. Assurances made by Russian officials in their statements that Africa is “in the mainstream of Russia's foreign policy” have not been substantiated by systematic practical activities, and the development of relations between Russia and Africa has so far nothing to boast about.

Maintaining mutually beneficial Russian-African political, economic, trade and cultural ties is a complex and multifarious challenge, which promotes the interests of Russia on the African continent and the world over. Therefore, the lack of attention to it on the part of Russian power-holding structures and the business community appears to be unreasonable and counter-productive.

Photo: Soul Centered Photography
Vasily Filippov:
Africa in one hundred years

In the next decade, prioritizing Russian-African relations will only gain momentum. Strengthening the multipolar (polycentric) system of international relations and the increased number of international actors and diversification of national interests necessitating their protection on the international arena will intensify foreign activities of Africans. A slackening of the guardianship on the part of traditional partners provides African states with better opportunities to successfully champion their national interests and promote their initiatives. Africa will play a more important role in activities to reform the United Nations, modernize Bretton Woods institutions and other structures, and shape norms and rules of international relations.

To expand the room for maneuvering and to weaken the dominance of the Euro-Atlantic community, Africans are determined to build partnerships with emerging new centers of power in world politics and their associations, such as the BRICS, ASEAN, etc. In line with traditions of close relationship, laid down in the times of their struggle for national liberation, and believing that Russia will return to club of the most influential actors on the continent and strengthen its key role in world affairs, Africans want to see it as their privileged partner. Russia’s development programs and reliable international forecasts confirm the validity of such expectations.

Experts invited by the National Intelligence Council of the United States to carry out the study Global Trends 2025 note that Russia in the next decade will vigorously develop and retain its place among the eight most powerful and influential states.

However, the conditions for developing relations will continue to remain difficult and complex, involving vast political and commercial risks.

African countries, especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), are likely to remain the most vulnerable region in the world in terms of economic threats, internal conflicts and political instability. The events of the Arab Spring in 2011 are just the latest evidence of this.

But we should bear in mind that the continent resembles a patchwork quilt by countries’ indicators.

The coming years will only make the contrasting dissimilarities even more distinct. Some countries and regions will build the necessary potential for a political and economic breakthroughs, while the others will continue to stagnate, staying afloat mainly due to international aid.

Countries of the continent’s southern cone demonstrate the greatest stability, as well as economic and political strength. The first African lions, joining the cohort of the Asian tigers and dragons will come out of their ranks. According to forecasts by European experts, 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Botswana, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Namibia, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and South Africa, are likely to come close to this by 2050. Against this background, it is selectivity that becomes the basic condition for the successful development of political and business relations with African states.

The convergence of foreign policy interests

The convergence of foreign policy interests, attitudes and aspirations will be intrinsic to the basic trajectory of foreign policy and diplomatic relations development between Russia and Africa. Russia needs the support of African countries on vital international issues, i.e. international security, struggle against terrorism, crime, drug trafficking, AIDS, environmental issues, etc.

Russian and African approaches to international affairs are practically devoid of any antagonism. As a matter of fact, on many issues their positions are fairly common or close. The solution of inevitable differences and contradictions, as a rule, has been found due to converging trajectories of their dynamics. Obviously, this trend will receive a new impetus in the short and medium term and its impact is likely to increase, owing to the 50 years of traditionally close cooperation after African countries gained independence and the upcoming dramatic restructuring of international relations that is creating a multi-polar polycentric system and a just and democratic world order.

With the international importance of Africa on the rise, it will exercise a more profound influence on the course and outcome of international discussions, as well as decisions on the urgent international issues. This is another added incentive for Russia to proceed from declarations of common interests and goals to practical cooperation and coordinated action on the international arena on the issues, vital for both sides.

The coming decade will be an important step in adapting the system of international relations to the realities of a multipolar world and, in particular, in reforming international institutions for regulating globalization processes.

Photo: www.africa-union.org
The Africans set out their ambitions in reforming
the UN in the Ezulwini Consensus, adopted by
the African Union in the 2005.

Russia and Africa are key players in developing a conceptual framework and practical scenarios for restructuring the United Nations Organization, the Bretton Woods institutions and other specialized international bodies and organizations. The proposed reforms will strengthen the positions, enhance the responsibility and increase the influence of African countries in their respective organizations. The Africans set out their ambitions in reforming the UN in the Ezulwini Consensus, adopted by the African Union in the 2005. The document provides Russian and African diplomacy with ample opportunities for coordinated action in this sphere.

In line with the Doha Round of trade negotiations, Russia's entry into the WTO signifies an intensification of cooperation in the sphere of foreign trade and world markets of goods, services, and investment flows. The efforts of Russian diplomacy at prominent international forums to promote the development of the African continent by the international community will be an important instrument for increasing the influence and image of Russia in African countries.

Hardly any other region of the world has enjoyed in recent years so much attention at international forums, meetings and conferences, including those at the very top level, as Africa. However, to overcome underdevelopment it needs large-scale scale inflows of external capital. In 2001, the Genoa G8 Summit adopted the Genoa Plan for Africa, and a year later the Group of Eight endorsed a concrete Africa Action Plan. The problems of the continent’s accelerated development were discussed at all G8 Summits. At the initiative of the Forum there were programs set up for debt remission, funds to combat AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, meningitis, to support transport and energy infrastructure and social sectors of education and health. Efforts to solve and prevent ethnic and border conflicts are constantly coordinated. As a part of these initiatives, Russia has written off 11.2 billion U.S. dollars debt of African countries (which is no different from official provision of development assistance), has made contributions to various funds for humanitarian and, above all, food aid worth 5-6 million dollars. The decisions of the last G8 held at Camp David in June 2012 call for increased assistance to African countries, enhancing its transparency and efficiency, as well as linking it more closely with the goals of reducing poverty and the needs of economic development.

Through large-scale and purposeful participation in the international development assistance Russia strives to advance its foreign policy priorities and strengthen the positions of Russian business in the African economic space. This orientation of the African policy of the Russian Federation is sure to manifest itself in the activities of the Group of Twenty, whose role in the reform of the international economic system is increasing. The Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth, endorsed by the leaders of G20 nations at the 2010 G-20 Seoul summit, highlights the fact that low-income countries have become new drivers of aggregate demand and more enduring sources of global growth and diversification of investment activity [8]. The vigorous advancement of the BRICS countries to the markets in Africa has already affected the balance of power on the continent.

The BRICS member-countries account for 30% of foreign exchange (over $ 200 billion), with total investments estimated at 50-60 billion dollars [9]. The further consolidation of the BRICS, to the emergence and development of which Russia has contributed a lot, gives the latter an impetus to emphasize the African vector of its foreign policy.

International implications brought about by the acute problems of choosing the pattern of democratic and market reforms in African conditions are likely to take a significant place within Russian-African relations.

Being convinced in the universal applicability of the Eurocentrist model of the world, as well as values and orientation of the Western civilization, Western countries are stubbornly imposing the canons of liberal democracy and faith in the omnipotence of the market, never minding related coercive methods and dictates.

Of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa Western experts consider 24 to be democratic. More or less regular presidential and parliamentary elections on an alternative basis are recognized as the leading criterion of democracy. In reality, however, under the pressure from the outside, it often comes down to facade changing and a perverse imitation of economic, social and political institutions. In African conditions, this opened the floodgates for ethnic and religious selfishness and struggles for power as well as provided access for the enrichment of the ruling elite. The legitimized right of foreign intervention to cope with the threat of terrorism, genocide, crimes against humanity and mass violations of human rights is interpreted in the capitals of the major NATO countries as the right of military invasion to coerce democracy or regime change. Using NATO forces in Libya, Iran, and Syria is a striking evidence of this. It is reasonable to assume that against this background the community of Russian-African positions will be based on the following principles:

• Unacceptability of dictating or imposing an optimal pattern of socio-economic and democratic development. The universality of democratic values does not rule out their establishment in different ways, depending on the historical experience of development, peculiarities of national culture and mentality;
• Encouragement and promotion of peaceful settlement of conflicts, prevention of confrontational scenarios;
• Involvement of the African Union and sub-regional organizations of the continent in peacekeeping efforts;
• Making decisions about military invasion on the basis of clear-cut criteria and severe restrictions on the use of the armed forces.

The Russian policy on Africa should focus on the pace and volume of trade and economic partnership.

The growing rate and volume of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Africa will turn out to be of strategic importance, and will become an instrument for achieving development goals and enhancing Russia's influence in the world economy and ability to shape the global economic order.

In the 2010s, the economies of the African continent will develop quickly and exhibit dynamically growing demand for investments. Some of them (in North Africa and certain countries of Sub-Saharan Africa) have historically consumed Russian products and offer spacious markets for Russian engineering exports, including defense materials.

In accordance with the Concept of Long-term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to the year 2020 adopted by the Russian government in 2006, by 2020 Russia should complete the transition of its economy oriented on raw materials export to innovative development and reach the level of economic and social development adequate for its status as a leading world power in the 21st century [10]. The share of innovative products in the industrial production is expected to reach 25-35% (against 2.5% in 2005), while the share of high-tech sector and the knowledge economy in the GDP should be at least 17-20% (against 10.5% in 2006). Russian exports are expected to grow from 354 billion dollars in 2007 to $900 billion in 2020. The export of engineering products will increase more than 6 times and reach 110-130 billion dollars.

Thus, the coming years will be a period of intensive development of economic, structural, material and financial conditions, favorable for promoting Russian-African cooperation in the following areas:

• Expansion of Russia's presence in Africa through an increased supply of food and industrial products;
• Development of investment cooperation;
• Increased involvement of Russia in the development of the African continent.

Along with the growth of cooperation potential, the role of such factors as mutual interest, complementarity, specificity and pragmatism will enhance too. The sphere of natural resources development is of primary importance both for Russia and Africa.

The 21st century has already been declared the century of pitiless struggle for natural resources. The global economic demand for mineral resources is rapidly growing. In 2008, the world production of mineral resources reached 463 billion dollars which is 350% more than in 2000 [11]. Africa has about 30% of the world natural resources. The countries of the continent account for 82% of world production of platinum, 47% - of cobalt, 46% - of diamonds, 43% - of palladium, 42% - chromium.

The data in Table 1 indicates a further substantial increase of the continent’s mineral extraction. In 2008-2015 copper production will increase by 60% (estimated); nickel – by 137%; zinc - by 72%; uranium – by 280%; palladium - by 32%. Africa already produces 600 times more manganese than Russia; tantalum - 30 times more; tin - 20 times more; chromium - 15 times more; bauxite - 7 times more.

The problem of achieving and strengthening the leading position in the supply of energy resources to world markets is of particular importance to Russia. The African continent displays growing activity in this sphere as well. By 2020, Russia plans (the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020) to increase its oil production to 500-545 million tons and exports – up to 255-265 million tons (against 243-245 million tons in 2007-2008); gas recovery – up to 815-900 billion cubic meters and its exports – up to 280-330 billion cubic meters (against 195-200 billion cubic meters in 2008).

Africa’s indicators are somewhat similar: its oil extraction in 2008 amounted to 480-490 million tons and 400 million tons was exported. In terms of gas, Africa still significantly lags behind Russia. By some estimates, oil production in Africa can achieve 900 million - 1 billion tons by 2020 and its export capacity will reach 800 million tons. To avoid the danger of significant reductions in the main source of budget revenue and investment resources, coordinating positions and setting down agreed rules of play in the world markets become of paramount importance to both partners.

The problem Russia faces is not a lack of natural resources but the depletion of commercially comfortable deposit reserves and the transition to development of deposits, requiring advanced practices and new generation technologies, which may take 10 or more years to design and put into practice.

Africa needs Russia. Russia needs Africa. This is the call of the times brought about by external political and economic challenges.

Photo: awesome.good.is

At present, Russia is facing a shortage of 10-15 kinds of hard minerals. Production costs grow incessantly. Russia's accession to the WTO could adversely affect the competitiveness of Russian deposits and increase the interest of Russian companies in the respective opportunities offered by African countries. Increased Russian investment in the mining sector in Africa is taking shape. More than 30 Russian companies are already involved in developing African natural resources or negotiating projects. In the next decade, this trend is likely to gain momentum.

Given growing competition and so far insufficient efforts put forth by the Russian business and government in improving the situation, the role of Russia in gaining access to African resources will remain unduly limited, although certain breakthroughs are possible in particular areas. The experience of West European and Chinese businessmen shows that high profits derived in Africa outweigh all existing commercial and political risks, problems with African bureaucracy and corruption, and deficiencies in the financial and banking systems and other structures. The outflow of profits from Africa was somewhat lower than the inflow of foreign direct investments only at the beginning of the 21st century. On the eve of the 2008 crisis, this difference was 20 billion dollars, with FDI inflows reaching $ 60 billion and the outflow of profits being slightly above $ 40 billion [12]. The volume of Russian-African trade turnover (10.9 billion dollars) is disappointingly low and causes anxiety, even if it is 1.5-2 times higher as the African statistics suggest. We have reason to believe that in the next decade the situation will change for the better. Africa is a market with growing demand and significant improvements in its structure. The continent's population is projected to increase to 1.3-1.4 billion people. But even more important is the growth of the urban population. In 2020, the urban population will be 44.6% of the total inhabitants of the continent (against 30% in 2000) [13].

The population of Cairo in 2025 will amount to 13.5 million people, Lagos – 15.8 million, Kinshasa – 15 million, Luanda – 8 million, Dakar – 4.3 million. This scope of urbanization will entail profound changes in import demand for an increased share of sophisticated and high-tech industrial products. In 2009, products of the chemical industry already accounted for 20% of exports of Western Europe in Côte d'Ivoire, the share of engineering products was 23%, food – 20.6%, electrical appliances and electronics – 10%.

The situation in Russian-African foreign trade will change for the better, if Russian industry undergoes technological modernization; the state provides Russian businessmen systematic and meaningful support; and small and medium businesses receive wider access to foreign economic cooperation with Africa.

Expansion of cooperation will promote the delivery of educational and shipping services, enhance technical assistance and strengthen cultural ties.

* * *

Russian-African relations provide enough opportunities for the development and promotion of Russia's position in world politics and economics. However, the achievement of these objectives will be subject to Russian activity in the following areas:

• Defining clear guidelines and priorities of Russian policy towards Africa;
• Creating conditions for the promotion of Russian goods and investments in African markets;
• Setting up mechanisms of financial support by the state of export and investment projects which is a compulsory condition for successful Russian business activity on the African continent;
• Creating a mechanism (Agency) to promote international development;
• Supporting and encouraging Russian investment in the mining sector of Africa; offering Russian companies incentives to acquire assets in the mining industry, including cooperation with large companies from third countries;
• Introducing tariff preferences for trade with African partners;
• Increased rendering of educational services and technical assistance in training;
• Setting up mechanisms to establish and maintain close contacts with the Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States and other regional organizations;
• Creating a platform for Russia - Africa collective dialogue.

Achievements in these directions have already taken shape and in our view will continue. Africa needs Russia. Russia needs Africa. This is the call of the times brought about by external political and economic challenges.

NOTES

1. George Friedman (2010). The Next Decade. Doubleday, a division of Random House. Inc.. New York.

2. ibid.

3. ibid.

4. Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project. 2005.

5. Global Trends 2025: A. Transformed World. Wash. 2008. p. 25–26.

6. Perspectives pour le continent Africain. Futur géant économique ou non? Document de travail № 25 de coe-rexecode. Juin 2011. p. 27.

7. Ibid.

8. Official website of President of the Russian Federation. The documents of the Group of Twenty Seoul Summit, November 2010

9. China Daily. 2011. November 14.

10. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated November 17, 2008 # 1682-p (as amended on August 8, 2009).

11. Perspectives pour le continent Africain. P., 2011. p. 38

12. UNCTAD. Data Base. Banque Mondiale Databank.

13. ONU-Habtat. World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.