The Russia–NATO Council: will there be a dialogue?

A meeting of the ambassadorial Russia–NATO Council (RNC) held on 20 April at the suggestion of NATO after a long break. There are two issues on the agenda – Ukraine and Afghanistan. It’s not clear, however, why this should be the venue for a dialogue on the crisis in Ukraine and in Afghanistan. The point of this meeting in NATO’s eyes is once again to present Russia with the consolidated position of the alliance’s Western member countries on the crisis in Ukraine. If that’s the only aim, the dialogue is unlikely to be successful.

A meeting of the ambassadorial Russia–NATO Council (RNC) held on 20 April at the suggestion of NATO after a long break. There are two issues on the agenda – Ukraine and Afghanistan. It’s not clear, however, why this should be the venue for a dialogue on the crisis in Ukraine and in Afghanistan. The point of this meeting in NATO’s eyes is once again to present Russia with the consolidated position of the alliance’s Western member countries on the crisis in Ukraine. If that’s the only aim, the dialogue is unlikely to be successful.

The Russia–NATO Council is an important forum for political dialogue and practical cooperation between Russia and NATO. The Russia–NATO Lisbon summit in 2010 saw some important decisions taken on cooperation between Russia and NATO on many issues, including the most important strategic aspects. This was preceded by serious disagreements and disputes over the basis on which cooperation might be built: on the basis of so-called pragmatic, constructive cooperation or the creation of single areas in the field of security. It was decided in Lisbon in 2010 that building “equal and indivisible security” and cooperation in this field was a priority issue. However, the plan for strategic cooperation was destroyed by the events of the Ukraine crisis, and that was not Russia’s fault.

The Russia–NATO Council was conceived as a body for cooperation in all circumstances and on an equal basis. The value of this kind of institution is that cooperation can be pursued not just when the political situation favours it but even in crisis situations – because that’s precisely when such bodies are most needed. The incident of the downed Russian plane demonstrates that the RNC has never been a forum in which partners can participate on an equal footing in their national capacity. If that had been the case, the Council would have had to discuss the incident within the framework of its own format, i.e. with the participation of Russia, Turkey and other member countries of the RNC. This did not happen, however, and the question why did not arise.

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The principle of dialogue on an equal footing was violated in 2014: NATO decided that the whole complex of relations between NATO and Russia had to be reviewed. It decided that cooperation or interaction with Russia in the previous format was impossible. Thus NATO demonstrated that Russia and NATO were interacting as unequal participants in the “NATO plus one” format, because the alliance had decided to cease practical cooperation with Russia, which in turn was not involved in that decision.

It is obviously impossible for the European security system to settle the Ukraine crisis without the committed involvement of the key players, such as Russia and NATO. In this case, however, the question is what results should be expected from the Russia–NATO dialogue on Ukraine. The Council’s meeting may be of interest as another stage for possible agreements and compromises between Russia and the USA. At least this would provide an opportunity to shape a more favourable environment for contacts at other levels and improve the political and diplomatic state of relations.

Russia had an interest in cooperation with NATO on other very important issues, such as security in Afghanistan, especially in view of the worrying forecasts concerning the development of the situation in the country and in the region. Here Russia and NATO have an interest in each other, but the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan led to such an unstable situation that relations between Russia and NATO were destroyed, while the motivation to strengthen Afghanistan’s security has remained high.

Despite the crisis in relations between Russia and NATO, Russia still wants to maintain a forum for constructive cooperation on Afghanistan. Russia tried to prevent NATO’s mission in Afghanistan being refashioned in this case into NATO’s Resolute Support Mission, but later voted for the new Resolution 2274 on Afghanistan at the UN.

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Another unspoken topic of the meeting is the Turkey issue, and not in terms of the Syria crisis but regarding the issue of trilateral cooperation between NATO, Turkey and Russia. This format at ambassador level will make it possible to formulate an understanding of whether it is possible to speak of a settlement of the Russian-Turkish conflict of interests, bearing in mind that neither NATO nor Russia wants it to escalate. NATO and Russia have to think seriously about the military risks to security, including in the context of the Ukraine crisis.

NATO is facing the serious issue of what decisions might be taken at the NATO summit in Warsaw, planned for 8–9 July 2016. In particular, will it confirm the decisions taken at the 2014 summit, which effectively signified a reshaping of NATO’s activity in the context of deterring Russia, or will it succeed in mitigating the situation? For example, Poland is insisting that it is necessary to increase the alliance’s military activity and to create the relevant infrastructure on the eastern borders where the six NATO member states in the East meet. In connection with this it is important to understand how provocative NATO’s activity is, what reaction the alliance is expecting from Russia, what to do with the situation of direct military conflicts, including the question of the schedules for military exercises coinciding and the general zones for holding them, and also what to undertake in volatile situations such as the incident in which a Russian plane was shot down on the Syria–Turkey border.

Prepared by Irina Sorokina, RIAC programme assistant, and Maria Gurova, RIAC website editor