Syria: A Chess Game

Turkey's forthcoming ground operation in Syria, which Ankara regularly warns about, has become a top concern for the international community. In November 2022, Turkish armed forces launched air strikes on parts of northern Syria with Operation Claw-Sword. The November 13^th terrorist attack in Istanbul was a major reason for the start of the operation. Turkey carried out air strikes on areas dominated by mostly Syrians and Iraqi Kurds. More than 50 aircraft and 20 drones took part in the air operation, with the support of Turkey’s artillery.

Afterwards, Recep Erdogan stated that the air strikes were only the beginning of Turkey’s plans, and Turkish troops would start ground operations at the most convenient time for Ankara. It is highly probable, that such actions will start in 2023. Moreover, if Turkey sets its goal to establish control over all the settlements that are defended by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the world will bear witness to fierce resistance from the Syrian Kurds, who will put up a fight to maintain their last stronghold.

The Turkish military operation in Syria does not meet Russia’s interests. Attacks from Ankara will exacerbate the current economic and humanitarian crisis in Syria, provoke increased terrorism threats, and reduce the possibility of finding a diplomatic compromise or a political settlement in the Syrian conflict.

Turkey's forthcoming ground operation in Syria, which Ankara regularly warns about, has become a top concern for the international community. In November 2022, Turkish armed forces launched air strikes on parts of northern Syria with Operation Claw-Sword. The November 13^th terrorist attack in Istanbul was a major reason for the start of the operation. Turkey carried out air strikes on areas dominated by mostly Syrians and Iraqi Kurds. More than 50 aircraft and 20 drones took part in the air operation, with the support of Turkey’s artillery.

Afterwards, Recep Erdogan stated that the air strikes were only the beginning of Turkey’s plans, and Turkish troops would start ground operations at the most convenient time for Ankara. It is highly probable, that such actions will start in 2023. Moreover, if Turkey sets its goal to establish control over all the settlements that are defended by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the world will bear witness to fierce resistance from the Syrian Kurds, who will put up a fight to maintain their last stronghold.

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It should be noted, that the SDF continues to receive US diplomatic and military-technical support. Given such terms, Turkey should not expect its ground operation in Syria to be quick and successful. Even if air strikes continue on northern Syrian settlements, civilian infrastructure will be completely destroyed, and there will be additional difficulties in the delivering humanitarian aid to the Syrians living in the northern part of the country. All this could send a tidal wave of new refugees in the region, instigating a migration crisis. Additionally, it will further add pressure on the economies neighboring Syria, including Turkey’s. A ground operation will only intensify the disastrous consequences in Syria.

Russian Special Presidential Envoy to Syria Alexander Lavrentiev warned that the Turkish operation would lead to an outbreak of violence and civilian casualties, as well as increase the threat of terrorism. Military confrontation intensification in Syria will strengthen ISIS (an organization banned in Russia), the defeat of which the SDF played an important role.

Extremists will probably try to take advantage of the chaotic situation and release their comrades-in-arms from prisons, which are now under the control of the Syrian Kurds. In January of 2022, ISIS militants already attempted to do so; the al-Sinaa prison in northeast Syria was attacked and terrorists tried to help several thousand prisoners suspected of having links with ISIS escape from prison.

Some regional players, as well as extra-regional powers, negatively view Turkey’s plans for conducting a military operation in Syria. In July of 2022, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned Recep Erdogan against an attack on Syria, as it would harm not only Syria, but also Turkey, in addition to other countries in the region. Given that Washington considers the SDF as instrumental in the fight against ISIS, the United States also negatively views Ankara's possible ground operation. However, it is hardly worth expecting any active opposition to the Turkish operation from the United States, which is cornered with optimizing its resources in the Middle East, as well as Ankara's position on accepting Finland and Sweden to NATO. However, if Turkey faces active opposition from Iran, Russia, and the United States, the operation may be postponed.

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Syria considers any attacks on its territory a violation of national sovereignty. Turkey, in turn, refers back to the Sochi Memorandum of Understanding, signed in October 2019 to defend its considered actions. According to the Memorandum, Kurdish groups should be located 30 km from the Syrian-Turkish border. In November of 2022, Al Jazeera Turkish sources stated that Ankara demanded the withdrawal of the SDF from the cities of Manbij, Tal Rifaat, and Ain al-Arab (Kobane), all located in northern Syria.

While conducting an air operation in Syria, Erdogan did not rule out normalizing relations with Damascus. However, Turkey's ground campaign, as well as continued air strikes against the Kurds, is likely to complicate communication with Syria and hinder any mutual trust forming. This will happen even if Ankara succeeds in obtaining formal permission from Russia and the Syrian government to conduct an operation against the Kurds. According to a statement by Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Ankara is currently discussing with Moscow the possibility of using Syria’s airspace to conduct a military operation against Kurdish groups.

However, the Turkish military operation in Syria does not meet Russia’s interests. Attacks from Ankara will exacerbate the current economic and humanitarian crisis in Syria, provoke increased terrorism threats, and reduce the possibility of finding a diplomatic compromise or a political settlement in the Syrian conflict.