The Hidden Logic of the United States that Led to its Withdrawal from the INF Treaty

The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) was a cornerstone of the system of bilateral arms control agreements and a key factor in maintaining the fragile balance in the nuclear forces of the two countries. The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty will lead to the collapse of the Russo-American system of arms control, provoke a new military confrontation or even a new arms race between the two major global powers and have grave consequences for global security.

The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) was a cornerstone of the system of bilateral arms control agreements and a key factor in maintaining the fragile balance in the nuclear forces of the two countries. The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty will lead to the collapse of the Russo-American system of arms control, provoke a new military confrontation or even a new arms race between the two major global powers and have grave consequences for global security.

The Motivation Behind the U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty

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A key motivating factor behind the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty was the desire for “absolute security.” After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. Army became the dominant military force in the world. This explains why U.S. military thinking in the 21^st century is focused on the principle of “absolute security.” The Trump administration has made missile defense a national security priority. Abandoning the INF Treaty gives the United States the opportunity to develop more effective intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles without any restrictions. A completely overhauled attack and defense system will thus allow the United States to strengthen its military deterrence potential while at the same time maintaining its “absolute security” and absolute advantage in the military sphere.

The second reason why the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty was to hinder Russia’s economic development from the outside, as Russia, despite its limited financial resources, will be forced to allocate significant funds to the development of its own missile system in order to maintain strategic stability and parity with the United States. If Russia cannot properly control the scale of its military spending, then this is likely to cause serious financial difficulties, slow down economic development and lead to social tensions, which will allow the United States to engineer an economic or even a political crisis in the country.

Another goal pursued by the United States was the further destabilization of relations between Russia and Europe. The United States has no intention of easing its military pressure on Russia any time soon, and Russia will, of course, continue to step up its countermeasures, which will lead to even greater tensions between Russia and Europe, with the latter being “sandwiched” between the arsenals of the rival countries. Europe is itself divided. Newly minted EU states such as Poland and Romania happily deploy American missiles on their territories, and this will no doubt exacerbate existing contradictions between the “old” and “new” Europe. What is more, Europe will face even greater security pressure from Russia, which will also negatively affect relations between the two sides. Such a turn of events plays into the hands of the United States, as this situation will certainly prevent Europe and Russia from patching things up, thus making it very unlikely that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted.

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Finally, the U.S. decision to abandon the INF Treaty was informed by the desire to contain China’s military potential. China is actively developing its own missile technologies, much to the chagrin of the United States, which seeks to put an end to this through various treaties. Having disencumbered itself from its obligations under the INF Treaty, the United States is toying with the idea of deploying intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Asia as a way to contain China. On February 5, 2019, Donald Trump announced that Washington was ready to consider the possibility of renegotiating the treaty if the number of parties were to be expanded. The United States practically forced Russia to bring China to the table. On April 10, the U.S. Secretary of State reported that the United States and Russia may soon continue negotiations on a new nuclear arms reduction treaty, and that China should be involved in this process. This suggests that the United States’ withdrawal from the INF Treaty was part of a comprehensive plan to exert military pressure on China. Trump again raised the issue of concluding a tripartite nuclear arms treaty with China during a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on May 3, 2019, once more trying to recruit Russia into bullying China together. In response, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that China opposed the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty and did not support the initiative to turn it into a multiparty agreement.

The Impact of the U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty

The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty poses a direct threat to the global arms control system, and it is particularly relevant when it comes to the creation of a universal system of strategic stability in the 21^st century. This state of affairs will inevitably lead to a new round of the “Great Game” in which military security and other areas are under threat. Moreover, it will have a significant impact on international security and even the existing world order.

The arms control system will likely crumble, and we may very well see the beginnings of a new arms race. The INF Treaty was the cornerstone of the U.S.–Soviet arms control system. It allowed Russia and the United States to maintain institutional interaction and information exchange in the military sphere. As President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has noted, the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty could lead to the collapse of the entire arms control system and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty) and its subsequent abandonment of the INF Treaty mean that Russia and the United States have now lost two fundamental arms control agreements. The nuclear balance that the two sides had maintained for decades is under real threat, as evidenced by the fact that both have stepped up the development and deployment of their missile systems since the United States decided to pull out of the INF Treaty.

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The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) was signed in 2010 and was very much in the vein of the Soviet–American arms control agreements. Under the agreement, the United States and Russia agreed to reduce the number of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles deployed during the Cold War. However, Donald Trump called New START a “bad deal” following the United States’ exit from the INF Treaty. If Russia and the United States fail to come to an agreement on the extension of New START or cannot hammer out a new one, then, given the collapse of both the INF and ABM treaties, the arms control system developed by the sides over the course of decades will finally crumble. And this may prompt world powers to intensify the research, development and deployment of missile defense systems with space-based elements, as well as other advanced weapons systems with greater accuracy, range and power.

We could also see a worsening of relations between the great powers in terms of military security. Other powers will strengthen their responses once it has sunk in that the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty will leave the world in a state of heightened security threats. Having weathered U.S. military pressure and Washington’s attempts to contain its military power with the help of the INF Treaty, China has stepped up the development and deployment of medium-range missiles and is actively strengthening military exchanges and military-technical cooperation with Russia.

The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty has also dealt a blow to the security interests of the European Union. Not only does the European Union need the United States and Russia to comply with the Treaty, but it also needs to reduce the missile threat overall. Given this, the European Union has called on Russia and the United States to take the necessary steps to restore the INF Treaty and try to minimize the fallout should one of the sides decided to abandon it.