Tunisia – Exploding History?

The terrorist attack in Tunisia on March 18, 2015 which took the lives of 22 civilians was no accident. At the very hour of the attack, the Tunisian Justice Minister was presenting a new draft law on combating terrorism and money laundering in Parliament. The presentation ended with sounds of gunfire coming from a nearby building.

The terrorist attack in Tunisia on March 18, 2015 which took the lives of 22 civilians was no accident. At the very hour of the attack, the Tunisian Justice Minister was presenting a new draft law on combating terrorism and money laundering in Parliament. The presentation ended with sounds of gunfire coming from a nearby building.

This was not the first act of terrorism in the country this year. And the assassination of European tourists has caused a loud response from international media. The attack on Bardo museum has forced European officials to pay special attention to Libya-based jihadists’ threats. During the summit of EU in Brussels on March 19th, Federica Mogherini declared: «It is an attack against Europe, and Europe should answer it» [1]. However, resolute statements do not result nowadays in resolute actions by European countries, which recently destroyed the Gaddafi regime that provided for the unity and stability of Libya. European leaders prefer to discuss ways of offering financial support to Tunisia, the negotiating process between the groups that have divided the “Libyan pie” into pieces, and the involvement of regional actors such as Egypt in the struggle against IS.

Meanwhile, there is an ongoing fight between radical Islam and the rest of society inside Tunisia, which includes supporters of the Islamic party Ennahda, and is trying to build a secular democratic state. At the same time, the groups of Okba Ibn Nafaa, a branch of al-Qaeda, are active in some parts of the country (for example, on the Algeria border) and IS brigades are active in others (for example, on the Libyan border). One can only speculate about which organization the terrorists belonged to, for the dead cannot speak. For example, there has been a suggestion that they were members of "Ansar al-Sharia". The day after the attack, the Islamic state in Libya took credit for this "feat" for itself. Whoever they were, they were not aiming at Parliament and not at visitors to the museum, but at Tunisian society. That society is colliding with the jihadists, resulting in casualties among the Tunisian security forces or civilians. These same civilians are joining mass demonstrations to show their determination to fight for a "free and strong Tunisia," stating that there is no place for Islamic extremists and terrorists in Tunisian society. Last night, hundreds and hundreds of Tunisians gathered on the main street of the capital to say "no" to the attempt to intimidate the people.

AP
Sergei Veselovsky:
The Second Front of Islamic Terrorism

Obviously, many forces in the Middle East and the world do not like the example of Tunisia, a country where different and even antagonistic political forces have been able to come to agreements and work out a plan of action aimed at rebuilding the country after the shocks of "Jasmine Revolution". The terror groups acting in some territories of the country are aspiring to break the process of “democratic transition” in Tunisia by creating an atmosphere of fear. The March 18 attack shows the "careful" attitude of those who are directing the actions of the radicals against the positive social and political processes in the country. The attack, as the first of its kind in the country’s capital, comes after a month of rising fears related to the emergence of IS in North Africa, in addition to persistent concerns about security along Tunisia’s borders with Libya and Algeria and fears about Tunisians returning home after fighting with IS in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Nevertheless, it would be premature to consider it the beginning of a massive terrorist campaign in Tunisia. The internal political conditions are not right for it. The Islamic Ennahda movement, despite its recent defeat in parliamentary elections, has managed to agree with secular forces about the maintenance of political consensus. The words of party leader Ahmed Mashreki confirm this: We put forward what is known as the “national unity government” and declared that Tunisia shall be governed only by consensus in the next 10 years to come. This is not a form of democracy, but rather a value that goes beyond democracy, which consists of giving the majority the right to rule [2]. Thus, we should not expect any violent actions in the struggle for authority from this side.

Some Russian experts believe that the Bardo attack should be seen as a certain signal given to the Tunisian authorities in order to make it change its position on two important economic issues. Firstly, this concerns the repartitioning of the domestic market by expelling Libyan clans from several sectors (including tourism). Secondly, the Tunisian authorities are struggling against fuel smuggling from Libya, which has caused sharp discontent among both the Libyan and the Tunisian underworlds.

The March 18 terrorist attack can have paradoxically positive consequences for Tunisia. Undoubtedly, it will certainly even more unite Tunisians in the face of the main threats today. It also will become possible to hope for active European aid. Finally, authorities have taken measures for strengthening security. Police and special services are building up discipline and interoperability, as the army contingent on border with Libya is increasing its strength. Despite the dramatic events and IS’ claim of responsibility, however, analysts say that the security situation in Tunisia is no worse now than it was before the attack. On the other hand, apparently, these attempts at destabilizing Tunis will continue, and there is a long and hard way the Tunisian state and society must overcome.

1. http://huff.to/1GlELP4

2. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2015/03/tunisia-ennahda-arab-unrest-libya-egypt.html