The most important achievement of China and Russia over the past decades has been their strategic partnership, which has been tested by numerous trials. Amid the stress of the global economy, the COVID-19 pandemic and, finally, the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing have managed not only to preserve de facto allied relations, but also to strengthen them and create the groundwork for the development of mutually beneficial co-operation in the future. At the same time, the state of Sino-Russian relations has broad international significance as a pillar of the world majority – a significant number of countries seeking to independently determine their foreign policy interests and development goals.
Russia and China have provided an example of how it is possible, while remaining committed to international institutions and law, to support the most important trends in the development of international politics, among which the formation of a multipolar world order is at the top of the list. There is little doubt that preserving the spirit and content of relations is of great importance for Russia and China, as well as for the world as a whole.
Russia and China have provided an example of how it is possible, while remaining committed to international institutions and law, to support the most important trends in the development of international politics, among which the formation of a multipolar world order is at the top of the list. Nowadays, co-operation between the two powers is developing in the context of new trends gaining strength among their main competitors – the Western countries led by the United States, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
The most important achievement of China and Russia over the past decades has been their strategic partnership, which has been tested by numerous trials. Amid the stress of the global economy, the COVID-19 pandemic and, finally, the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing have managed not only to preserve de facto allied relations, but also to strengthen them and create the groundwork for the development of mutually beneficial co-operation in the future. At the same time, the state of Sino-Russian relations has broad international significance as a pillar of the world majority – a significant number of countries seeking to independently determine their foreign policy interests and development goals.
Russia and China have provided an example of how it is possible, while remaining committed to international institutions and law, to support the most important trends in the development of international politics, among which the formation of a multipolar world order is at the top of the list. There is little doubt that preserving the spirit and content of relations is of great importance for Russia and China, as well as for the world as a whole.
Nowadays, co-operation between the two powers is developing in the context of new trends gaining strength among their main competitors – the Western countries led by the United States. The most important of these trends appears to be an internal split along two lines. Firstly, there is a marked difference between the approach of the new government in the US and its allies in Europe. We have already had the opportunity to observe how a number of Washington’s statements and decisions have been met with consternation and misunderstanding in Europe. There is little doubt that European political elites are looking for a way to adapt to the processes that are taking place in the United States. However, this search has been accompanied by growing mutual misunderstanding and is leading to the emergence of new cracks in the once monolithic and unified community of countries which in Russia is commonly referred to as the ‘collective West’. It is important for Russia and China to jointly monitor the evolution of US-European relations and actively discuss the processes taking place there at the expert and political level.
Secondly, the pision of interests within the ruling elites in the West is gaining momentum. Some of them are now more energetic in their adaptation to the changing world, looking for answers to internal crises and development challenges in the US and Europe. Others among the elites adhere to traditional views, and are trying to maintain a dominant position in world affairs without reliance on internal development, pursuing a globalist agenda in the traditional, not the best, sense of the term. We do not know now how this crisis will develop inside the West, and there is reason to fear that it may lead its states to more aggressive behaviour in their relations with Russia, China and other countries throughout the world. In the United States, the most economically powerful and well-armed country in the West, there is a tense internal struggle, the outcome of which cannot be predicted yet. Therefore, some observers do not rule out that the forces that prevent any domestic and foreign policy changes may return to power in one form or another. This could also be an important area of political dialogue and expert cooperation between Russia and China. In order to be more prepared for the future, Moscow and Beijing should already assume that a common assessment of challenges is the result of a common view of the most important issues affecting world politics.
Russia and China are quite confident about their economic relations, which have not been undermined despite harsh pressure from the US and Europe on companies that continue to do business despite Western ‘sanctions’. But the past three years have given us a great deal of material to jointly understand where Sino-Russian economic co-operation is most vulnerable to external pressure. Repeated instances in which Western threats have interrupted trade ties and ‘paused’ promising projects should be carefully examined. There is little doubt that in the future, China and Russia will repeatedly face the West’s desire to use its position in the global economy as a means of political pressure. It is important to endeavour now to develop measures to counter such attempts. This will also build trust between Russia and China and create a solid foundation for the excellent political relations that their leaders have been able to build in recent years.
In assessing the relations that Russia and Chinamaintain with Western countries, one can draw attention to the active discussions around the question of Europe’s position in world affairs. At times, Chinese and Russian observers even disagree on whether European countries can play any constructive role in the world. It seems that Europe should remain at the centre of attention of China and Russia and their expert community. Firstly, because the region remains an important economic partner for China and retains a certain importance for Russia. Secondly, because Europe will undergo serious internal transformations in the coming years, which it is necessary to follow closely. We do not know exactly what path Russia’s neighbours in the West will take in the future. However, Russia and China, as the world’s responsible powers, should not lose sight of Europe. Especially since it is still, as has already been said, of economic interest. It is possible that more responsible elites will come to power in Europe in the future, and we should also be prepared for such changes.
The US strategy, as we understand it, will be to try to create a rift in the China-Russia relationship. US representatives have repeatedly said this at a variety of levels, including top officials. So far, the issue has only been raised in the sense that the US will try to ‘pull’ Russia away from China because of the likelihood of a more difficult relationship between Washington and Beijing. There is no basis for Russian policy to change. Therefore, we can expect that against the backdrop of the current talks, the US will try to pull China away from Russia by emphasising the ‘special’ nature of relations between the two powers and the differences in the scale of their economic ties. The Russian and Chinese expert communities should also be prepared for such US efforts. In particular, it can be expected that the United States will try to conduct separate dialogues with Russia and China on such important contemporary issues as information technology and artificial intelligence. The purpose of such activities in the political sense is to artificially pide the interests of China and Russia.
This is especially true now that there are no objective preconditions for the emergence of problems between our countries that existed in the middle of the last century. The difficulties that were once inherent in relations between China and Russia came from the internal development of these countries and were not provoked from the outside. There is no need, therefore, to exaggerate the importance of American diplomacy in the 1970s - and especially the role of some inpiduals. At the same time, there is a need to work on building a more solid basis of mutual understanding between Russia and China at the societal level. Prejudices persist in both countries. Cooperation in education and even science remains insignificant, although real progress has been made in recent years. Overcoming prejudices and fears is an important task in building cooperation between Chinese and Russian scientists.
Finally, China and Russia have a shared responsibility to create a common space of development and prosperity in Greater Eurasia. This means that Beijing and Moscow are equally interested in the peaceful resolution of interstate and internal contradictions, and in preventing those outside forces from entering Eurasia that could contribute to the emergence of crises and conflicts here. Combining Chinese and Russian strategy in the common Eurasian space is not only an important issue for scientific discussion, but also a practical task; achieving it will affect the future of all the peoples of this vast region.
Source: Valdai. Discussion club
