Russia appears to be the fourth most important Black Sea military actor considering the size of its forces. Russia's Southern Military District was formed in 2010 on the basis of the North Caucasus Military District, the Black Sea Fleet, the Caspian Flotilla and the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Command, and it has its headquarter located in Rostov-on-Don. It also includes units deployed in Armenia, South-Ossetia and Abkhazia, and since March 2014, in Crimea and Sevastopol. Considering the crisis in Ukraine, the number of Russian forces dispatched in the Southern Military District has fluctuated, and we can only provide an assessment of their size. Yet, Southern Military District's units are believed to be better trained and equipped than those from Russia's other military districts (Western, Central and Eastern military districts). Moreover, with 1,500 personnel, Russian troops deployed in Transdniestria represents the equivalent of 25% of the size of Moldova's military (around 6,500). Plans to end the conscription have failed, and today nearly a third of Russia's army consists in conscripts. In the Caucasus, the army represents by far the largest unit in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Baku's paramilitary forces are made from the Border Guard and Coast Guard (5,000) and 10,000 personnel from the Militia (Ministry of Internal Affairs). Nearly half of the Armenian army consists in conscripts whereas in Georgia, this rate falls at 21% (3,750 out of 17,750) and 23% for the Air Force.

In terms of available reserves, Russia remains, by far, the first actor with 2,000,000 people, followed by Ukraine (1,000,000) and Turkey (less than 400,000). Since the bulk of Russia's population lives in the Western part of the country, mobilized persons could be easily transferred to the Southern Military District.

Russia's Southern military district tanks units consist mainly in T-90A and T-72 whereas the armored infantry fighting vehicles are BMP-2 (amphibious capable) and BTR-80 armored personal carriers.

Russia's Southern military district air force represent approximately 20% of the Black Sea countries' air force capabilities, and they are larger than all Greek's air capabilities. They are regrouped within the 4^th Air Force & Air Defence Command and dispatched on 9 air bases located in Russia, plus the 3624^th Air Base located at the Erebuni airport in Yerevan which hosts 16 MiG-29 Fulcrum, plus the air bases located in Crimea (mainly Gvardeyskoye, near Sevastopol). In 2013, Russian pilots reportedly performed 100 to 120 flying hours a year. Russia operates in its Southern Military District 121 fighters (63 MiG-29 Fulcrum and 58 Su-27 Flanker), more than 80 fighter and ground attack aircrafts (Su-24M Fencer, Su-27SM3, Su-30M2 and Su-34), and 129 attack aircrafts (Su-25 Frogfoot). Yet, according to the Russian State Armament Program 2011-2020 and to the recently unveiled Air force procurement plan, the Southern Military District is set to induct new aircrafts including Su-34 bombers (in replacement of non-modernized Su-24), modernized Su-24, multipurpose Su-30SM, additional Su-34 as well as Su-35 fighters. Moreover, after having annexed Crimea, Moscow has gained free hands to deploy any new units and arm systems in the peninsula. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the deployment of 20 additional Su-27 fighters on the Crimean airbase of Belbek was part of Russia's military presence build up, as well as long-range supersonic bombers Tu-22M3 in 2016. These bombers, which are capable to carry nuclear weapons, should be deployed on Gvardeyskoye airbase, together with Tu-142 and Il-38N, and Ka-27 and Ka-30 helicopters, all being fitted for maritime patrols and anti-submarine warfare. Gvardeyskoye could thus become a sort of hub for Russia's naval aviation which would be able to perform patrol as far as the Eastern Mediterranean. In January 2014, Russia formed a helicopter squadron to strengthen its air contingent at the Erebuni air base in Armenia. New Mi-24P attack helicopters, Mi-8MT and Mi-8SMV military transport helicopters will be gradually dispatched at Russia's 3624^th Air Base in Armenia. These new helicopters will strengthen the already operating 24 Mi-24 Hind and 12 Mi-28N Havoc B attack helicopters. Moreover, according to the air force procurement plan, the Southern military district helicopter capabilities will be enhanced with new Ka-52 and Mi-28N attack helicopters, Mi-8AMTSh Terminator assault-transport helicopters, Mi-35 combat helicopters and Ka-226 utility choppers.

Today, Russia's Black Sea Fleet remains a Soviet-era "green water fleet" with limited high sea capabilities. It operates 1 guided missile cruiser, the Moskva, which is also the flagship of the fleet, 1 classic submarine, 3 frigates, 7 large amphibious units, and several small antisubmarine warfare boats and small missile or artillery boats. Around 90% of the tonnage of the fleet is located in Crimean ports, mainly in Sevastopol (80%), but also in Feodossia (9%). In 2014, the overall average age of the nearly 40 combat units reaches 36 years, underscoring the deep need for replacement of the units. The Black Sea Fleet is served by 13,000 service men dispatched primarily in Crimea, but also in other naval and air bases such as Temryuk (Russia's only naval base in the Sea of Azov), Novorossiysk, and Otchamchira and Gudauta in Abkhazia. The fleet lacks air-defense and air strike capabilities, and therefore relies on land-based assets to offset this gap. Moscow has reportedly deployed S-300 air-defense systems in Crimea as early as March 2014, soon after the beginning of military operation which ended with the annexation of the peninsula. On the other hand, Caspian Flotilla's modernization plan was initiated during the first half of the 2000s and the process is still underway. Both naval formations are linked through the Don-Volga canal which allows the quick transfer of small artillery boats and missiles corvettes from one sea to another via inland southern Russia. The Caspian Flotilla has already been reinforced with 2 new frigates (Project 11661), the Tatarstan (commissioned in 2003) and the Dagestan (inducted in 2012), and 3 corvettes (Project 21630), the Astrakhan (commissioned in 2006), the Kaspiysk (2011) and the Makhachkala (2012). In the framework of the 2011-2020 State Armament Program, the Caspian Flotilla is set to receive 4 additional missile corvettes (Project 21631) which feature Kalibr cruise missile. The two first units, the Grad Sviyazhsk and the Uglitch were commissioned in July 2014, and a third, the Velikiy Ustiug was inducted in December 2014. The next units are set to be assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. The buildup of the Black Sea Fleet is one of the highest priority of the State Armament Program and up to 18 new units should be commissioned by 2020. Moscow also plans to upgrade its military presence in the Black Sea region in setting up new military facilities in Abkhazia and South-Ossetia, and deploy additional mobile missile coastal forces. New sea platforms should consist in 6 multipurpose frigates (Project 11356M), currently under construction in Yantar Shipyard (Kaliningrad). The lead ship unit, the Admiral Grigorovicth, was floated out in mid-March 2014, and has been commissioned in March 2016. Derived from the Soviet Krivak type frigates, the new Project 11356M frigates will have anti-ship (P-800 Onyx missile), anti-surface (cruise missile Klub) and anti-air capabilities (Shtil SAM missile system). Whereas Russia has secured the engines for the first batch of three frigates, the commissioning of the next three units seems problematic since Ukraine's Zorya Machproject was the supplier. Due to the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has opted for the indigene manufacturer, Saturn, to build Russian-made engines, which will postpone the induction of the last three Project 11356 units to 2 to 3 years. Six new classic submarines (Project 0636.3, Kilo class), built in the Admiralty shipyard (Saint Petersburg), should also be commissioned. The first unit, the B-261 Novorossiysk, was launched in November 2013 and already joined the Black Sea Fleet, whereas the second unit, the B-237 Rostov-Na-Donu was inducted in the Black Sea Fleet in late 2015. The new platforms will critically enhance Russian anti-access area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the Black Sea, and contribute to lock Russia's southern flank. Moreover, Russia's annexation of Crimea is likely to give a substantial impetus to the development of the Black Sea Fleet, and Moscow has announced it will reconsider the overall basing system of the fleet as well as deployment plans for the new units in the short term. The critical lack of maintenance infrastructures should also be solved in the short term: Russia has reportedly designed plans to develop and refit Sebastopol's shipyards capabilities.