Always remain attentive and curious. Russia, China and the new world order

Immanuel Kant: “Heaven has given mankind three things to counterbalance the many hardships of life: Hope, sleep and laughter.”

Kant bench at Philosophenweg, Königsberg, April 2024

Going through life with humor and serenity

Moose stand for strength, endurance and grandeur. Moose are the native symbol of East Prussia and, among other things, an advertising icon. Will we pass the so-called “moose test” and stay in balance? This is exactly what we need: endurance, patience, composure and, last but not least, a necessary dose of humor.

The Berlin Wall has fallen and today firewalls are being diligently erected once again: Germany was united and now it is being divided anew at every turn. Before you know it, people are again being marginalized.

On the one hand, there are the good guys who are sure they know the absolute truth in all areas of life. On the other, there are those who seem to lack the ability to shape their own lives independently and freely or to agree to what feels good and right for them.

With downright despotic behavior — you would think we were in China and not in Europe —rules of language and behavior are established, “good” demonstrations are ordered by the state.

But in times of crisis, there are always rays of hope, and new doors open. Things are bubbling up, more and more people are becoming aware of this one-sidedness, new networks are emerging, alternative media are offering us other points of view, which certainly do not represent the absolute truth — who knows the absolute truth and does it even exist? Basically, the motto for all of us should be: Stop complaining and turn to Kant.

In the spirit of Immanuel Kant, whose 300th birthday was celebrated on April 22, 2024, we are increasingly being asked to form our own opinions. Sapere aude is more relevant than ever before.

As Marie Curie (1867-1934) remarked: “You need fear nothing in life, you only need to understand everything.” So we face up to the realities, try to understand how the world might develop — and are grateful to have the chance to experience these historic times of upheaval and geopolitical shifts.

Tectonic geopolitical shifts

In 1991, with the collapse of the USSR, the bipolar world order became a monopolar world with the USA as the sole world power, politically, economically and, above all, militarily — together with the states dependent on it, in particular the EU, which serves as an important outpost for the USA.

Jacques Ancel,[1] French geographer and geopolitician, saw a border “as a political isobar that determines the balance between mass and forces for a certain period of time.” The world order is developing in exactly the same way: from a bipolar world order to a monopolar order to a multipolar or multiregional order.

The balance of power has shifted more towards the emerging economies due to the increasing networking and interlinking of the economy, politics and society. A new balance is emerging. We need new rules to ensure the necessary harmony is present — a harmony that can only be created if prosperity, security and peace are guaranteed.

This requires, at least in Germany and Europe, a decoupling from the USA and NATO, a clear political, economic and security strategy, and new visions so we can go our own way and tell new stories.

Waving to the troops

Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a very tense time that could well lead us to World War III. International law, arms control, demilitarization, diplomacy and understanding have been completely undermined. States and governments say and do what they want and, instead of peace, they strive for war.

The military, with its distinctive command structure, is too highly involved in global manipulation. The Internet was primarily developed for the military. And so, the global digital-military power elites are currently the big winners in the world’s wars and conflicts.

Peace is not lucrative for these global elites, which is why they are setting things on fire wherever possible in order to prepare the population for war.

In general, it seems to be “in” right now for soldiers to present themselves on the Internet and to encourage people to be ready for war. Further, Germany's largest armaments company, Rheinmetall, recently even became a sponsor of Borussia Dortmund football club. Weapons and consequently killing seem to be becoming more and more socially acceptable.

This provocation is one piece of a macabre puzzle designed to keep the population in fear, to prolong the war until the arms-makers’ coffers are full again and the arsenal of weapons is back up to date.

According to Sipri[2]: “Global military spending totaled 2.443 billion dollars in 2023, an increase of 6.8 percent in real terms compared to 2022. This was the largest year-on-year increase since 2009. The top 10 spenders in 2023 — led by the United States, China and Russia — all increased their military spending.”

Among other things, the French defense industry[3] is booming. Companies such as Dassault and Thales have been setting records since Europe began its massive militarization. France has even overtaken Russia as the second largest arms exporter[4]. The USA has increased its share of European arms imports from 35% (2014-2018) to 55% (2019-2023). Given such figures, why should there be any interest in ending the war in Ukraine?

There are never good wars

It is important to remember that conflicts and wars are never about human rights and democracy. Weapons manufacturers are global players and therefore know no borders and have no national feeling, but are solely focused on maximizing profits. They are owned by global institutional owners. For example, the largest shareholders of the defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corporation[5] include State Street Corp, Vanguard Group Inc., BlackRock Inc., VTSMX — Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc., VFINX — Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares, Morgan Stanley, Capital World Investors, Geode Capital Management LLC and FMR LLC.

Monopolar and bipolar world order, militarization, war rhetoric, command and obedience — these are relics from the old world order. The new one will not work like this. Living multipolarity means always staying close and creating diplomacy and peace-binding measures.

Who is actually isolated?

New players, China, Russia and the BRICS states are on the world stage and are powerfully heralding the end of US hegemony, and with it the end of the dominance of the so-called “democratic Western world.”

On the currency front, too, more and more countries, especially the BRICS states, are decoupling from the US dollar, trading more with the renminbi or working on alternative cross-country currencies.

No wonder: Russian assets are frozen worldwide, around 200 billion euros of them are in the EU, assets generating a profit of 4.4 billion[6]. There is a debate as to whether these profits should be siphoned off to buy weapons for Ukraine. State assets actually enjoy immunity and may be frozen in the event of conflict to prevent movement and use. Skimming off earnings, however, is illegal. Seen in this light, the renminbi, among other things, appears to be a safe means of payment that has not yet been exposed to geopolitical moral arbitrariness.

And if you consider it — isn’t that a completely normal development? Developing and emerging countries, regardless of whether they are dictatorships or democracies, grow up, become independent and write their own history. You can see this very clearly now if you look at the development of Russian-Chinese relations.

All the sanctions have driven Russia into China’s arms. Both countries are skillfully exploiting this opportunity, both economically and strategically. Xi Jinping very confidently invited Russia’s Vladimir Putin to a meeting that, among other things, also reaffirmed the economic exchange of the respective national currencies.

These two states are not isolated — on the contrary, they are playing a decisive role in a geopolitically very important part of the world, Eurasia.

The “woke wave” of the “Western community of values,” with the German spearhead of feminist foreign policy, can only be smiled at wearily.

The USA and the Western world are fighting tooth and nail against this upheaval and are seeking refuge in ideologization and moralization. It is a hopeless endeavor, because reality, humanity, international law and diplomacy will once again determine the course of time and thus give the lie to ideologization.

Let us not underestimate the opportunities presented by the geopolitical shifts, which have opened the door wider than ever — and the path is clear for creating new structures.

China’s unique rise

With the tectonic geopolitical shifts that we are currently experiencing, the absolutely unique rise of China in economic and geopolitical terms must be brought into focus again and again. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 and the USSR collapsed, China was still a distant, almost exotic country. Through the lens of “trade through change,” the country was seen to be moving towards democracy, in the former colonial style, according to Western values. The “Eurocentrism” in particular reflected an attitude of superiority towards China, as it had long been the extended workbench of the global economy. Hardly anyone suspected that the country had long wanted to tell its own story and had developed its own interests: the Grand Strategy.

China’s path to modernity is characterized by a massive feat of strength that lifted almost 800 million people out of poverty. The so-called Mao script, the simplification of Chinese characters, gave more people access to education and thus to higher-value professions.

China has concentrated on strengthening and utilizing its own strengths, completely independent from the outside, from Western economic institutions and organizations, including the World Bank. In contrast to the USA, the country has not yet pursued an aggressive foreign policy, including wars such as the Gulf Wars, Afghanistan, etc. China is a world power that does not practice military intervention.

Even if the rise of China has also seen brutal episodes, such as the Cultural Revolution, the country has never lost sight of the bigger picture: independence, unity of the country with Taiwan by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

The Chinese Communist Party is the constant determining the fate of the country, even with brutal upheavals, that has cost millions of people their lives.

What is unique is the inclusion and close connection with its own history and culture: “Chinese-style socialism.” “Saving face” and not interfering in others’ affairs are, among other things, the guarantee that China is developing into an independent world power, including a technological race to catch up and a lead that is second to none.

The attitude of “this and that” instead of “this or that” opens doors for peaceful, harmonious and cooperative coexistence, in the spirit of Jacques Ancel, who also saw harmony as the basis for peaceful coexistence.

Economic sanctions against Russia

Sanctions have long been considered an effective means of forcing other states to change their behavior. Entry and export bans are aimed at weakening the economy of the sanctioned state. It is a form of punishment designed to persuade the government to change its policy.

The effectiveness of such sanctions is controversial, as they do not affect the country's economy itself, but the population. Fortunately, sanctions are only political means that the economy can adhere to, but does not have to. This is shown, for example, by the case of Russia: The majority of German businesses are not boycotting Russia, as there are still many companies that continue to operate[7] in Russia, including Metro, Bayer, Hochland, Claas, Hugo Boss. Many French companies are also not thinking of leaving Russia: Chanel, Dior and also Leroy Merlin, which has now become the market leader, have stayed in Russia.

Also, during my foray through Kaliningrad-Königsberg, it was clear that Metro as well as numerous Chinese automotive companies and Korean companies dominate the cityscape. The German-Russian joint venture Grünwald also continues to produce.

Russian-Chinese economic relations are booming[8]: Russia’s main export products are crude oil and petroleum products — thus securing China’s economic prosperity. Most countries of the world are not imposing sanctions on Russia.

China — Decoupling with a difference

Although the German government has formulated its first China strategy[9], which sees a decoupling of the German economy as the key step for reducing dependencies, German businesses appear to interpret decoupling differently. Direct investments rose in 2023 by 4.3% to a new high of 11.9 billion euros[10]. German companies have invested as much in the last three years as they have in the last six. German enterprises are not thinking of withdrawing from the Chinese market.

On the contrary, they are investing in securing their investments, i.e. in de-risking, including diversification of suppliers and the supply chain. Profits generated in China are massively reinvested in order to remain in the country. The approach taken by the business community is pragmatic, as certain products such as rare earths are available in China, a so-called “natural dependency.” As risk awareness is heightened, more investment is therefore necessary — which is probably not what politicians had in mind.

Flowers for Kant and the sky over East Prussia

Propaganda is everywhere. That’s why it’s so important to travel. It’s a unique opportunity to gain your own impression of the current situation. Despite the travel warning issued by the German Foreign Office, a group of travelers took the bus to Königsberg-Kaliningrad to celebrate the 300th anniversary of Kant’s birth.

As geographer and geopolitician, Jacques Ancel noted at the time, there are no natural borders, such as mountains or rivers, which “can enclose states and nations ad aeternum.” It is above all spiritual factors that constitute a border — human factors. “A nation firmly established, a circumscribed nation, is therefore one whose function is clear and which results from the harmony between the forms of life of which it is composed.” “When harmony is found, national consciousness is established, and nations can exist even without borders.”[11]

Five years after my first trip to Königsberg, the cityscape has changed significantly. The city looks more modern, with a generous highway ring around Königsberg, the old rickety streetcars have been replaced by modern streetcars. The House of Councilors, a bone of contention for many years, is finally being demolished.

There is no sign of food shortages, everything looks modern and clean.

New modern residential complexes are springing up everywhere, a building boom has overtaken East Prussia. Old houses from the German era are being renovated, as are so-called Khrushchev and Soviet-era buildings. All this makes up the “wild” charm of the new Königsberg — the city doesn’t really know where it wants to go yet.

Particularly in traditional seaside resorts such as Rauschen and Cranz, high-rise buildings are springing up like pebbles on the shore. It’s a frightening sight to see how these “bed burgs” are being built there. Vacation paradises are being created for Russians from the heartland. Due to the current travel restrictions on Russians, East Prussia with its beautiful coastline has become a place of longing for Russians.

But with an average monthly salary of around 450 euros, one wonders who can afford such apartments. The poverty rate in the Königsberg region is 13.4%[12], 2.4% higher than in core Russia, and has only decreased slightly since 2018, when the rate was 13.6%. The population is 1.02 million, with just under half living in Königsberg-Kaliningrad.

Today, East Prussia consists mainly of fallow land, little is cultivated, otherwise a few herds of cows, horses and shepherds with their flocks of sheep give liveliness to this otherwise barren landscape and are a counterpoint to the modern residential complexes.

Insterburg is, among other things, an important railroad junction between East and West, with Russian and European tracks. Many containers went via Insterburg along the Belt&Road. Unfortunately, rail traffic has now been interrupted. Gumbinnen wants to develop into an “economic center,” a “city of change” with an “innovation cluster” including the manufacture of electronic products and microelectronics for AI.

Just like the city of Königsberg, the development of East Prussia is inconsistent. But one thing stands out: It seems that East Prussia is developing into a Russian version of Ballermann, the seaside resort on Mallorca heavily frequented by tourists.

True effects of sanctions

Non-Russian tourists no longer seem to be welcome. Museums, such as the new museum in Königsberg Cathedral, do not have an audio guide offering explanations in several languages — all labels are exclusively in Russian. This is also true in the Kant Museum in Judtschen. In the Königsberg Cathedral, Kant’s famous dinner party was re-enacted using AI and — amazingly — only Russian was spoken. This is a massive seizure by Russia of Kant, Königsberg and East Prussia, which leaves me stunned.

In general, the people in the Königsberg-Kaliningrad region seem more reserved than they did five years ago during my first visit, despite their warmth. These are the true effects of the sanctions — not economic, not political, but human. This is enormously tragic and far-reaching, and we should take decisive action to counter it.

We must continue to be open to everything and everyone, to travel and make targeted use of opportunities arising from the current geopolitical upheavals.

Wouldn’t neutrality be the right answer and attitude in these troubled times

Wouldn’t neutrality be the key to more exchange and openness for the Kaliningrad-Königsberg region? And wouldn’t this also make sense for Ukraine? Neutrality in order to be able to write its own history, wouldn’t that be this a sensible first step towards a peaceful world order?

What remains is the beautiful sky over East Prussia and the hope that this beautiful land of my ancestors is moving towards its destiny — namely that of reconciliation, the bridge from Germany and Poland to Russia, a bridge that connects and reconciles West and East.

References and Reading Tipps

Ancel, Jacques (1938): Géographie des frontières, Gallimard.

Banik, Katja (2024): Die friedliche Memel, www.katjabanik.com

Banik, Katja (2022): Im Rausch des Bernsteins — der historische Osten Deutschlands, www.katjabanik.com

Banik, Katja (2021): A clear view eastwards: Russia and Germany, www.katjabanik.com

Banik, Katja (2021): Without roots, no future. Decoupling ideologies, www.katjabanik.com

Dohnanyi, Klaus (2022): Nationale Interessen, Siedler Verlag, München.

Donelaitis, Kristijonas (1765-1775): Die Jahreszeiten; aus dem Litauischen von Gottfried Schneider, C.H. Beck, 2021.

Graichen, Hesse (2012): Die Bernsteinstraße. Verborgene Handelswege zwischen Ostsee und Nil, Rowohlt Taschenbuch Verlag, Hamburg.

Kant, Immanuel (1795): Zum ewigen Frieden

Lamszus, Wilhelm (1912): Das Menschschlachthaus, Alfred Janssen Verlag Hamburg Berlin.

Lasch, Otto (1959): So fiel Königsberg, Gräfe und Unzer Verlag.

Pölking, Hermann (2022): Das Memelland. Wo Deutschland einst zu Ende war, bre.bra. verlag, Berlin

Teltschik, Horst (2019): Russisches Roulette: Vom kalten Krieg zum kalten Frieden, C. H. Beck.

Wagener, Martin (2021): Der Kulturkampf um das deutsche Volk. Der Verfassungsschutz und die nationale Identität der Deutschen, Lau Verlag.

[1] Ancel (1938)

[2] https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/global-military-spending-surges-amid-war-rising-tensi...

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/thales-und-dassault-frankreichs-ruestungsindustri...

[4] https://www.politico.eu/article/france-overtake-russia-world-weapons-exporter/

[5] https://fintel.io/so/us/lmt#:~:text=Largest%20shareholders%20include%20State%20Street,Capital%20Mana...

[6] https://weltwoche.ch/daily/russisches-vermoegen-erst-einfrieren-und-abschoepfen-die-wortwahl-aus-bru...

[7] https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/ukraine-krieg-die-meisten-deutschen-fir...

[8] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1313325/umfrage/warenhandel-von-russland-mit-china/

[9] https://www.publikationen-bundesregierung.de/pp-de/publikationssuche/china-strategie-2203504

[10] https://www.reuters.com/markets/german-investment-china-rises-new-record-high-2024-02-14/#:~:text=BE....

[11] Ancel (1938)

[12] https://de.statista.com/themen/9576/oblast-kaliningrad/#topicOverview