From Brasília to Beijing: Lula's Diplomatic Voyage Marks Brazil's Resurgence on the Global Arena

The visit of the Brazilian President to China on April 14, 2023 sets new milestones in foreign policy and opens up new opportunities for strategic partnership between the two countries. The leaders of Brazil and China signed a series of agreements that will strengthen economic, trade and cultural ties between the two countries. The visit also highlighted the importance of a multipolar world and cooperation among developing countries in solving global problems. Moreover, Lula's visit is seen as Brazil's return to the international stage as a major player as it seeks to strengthen organizations such as BRICS and mediate peace dialogue between Ukraine and Russia.

Reuters

Lula's "active non-alignment" strategy with China

In April this year, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited China. After Jair Bolsonaro's low-key foreign policy Lula's trip to China was perceived by the Brazilian press as a symbol of the return of the South American giant to the world stage. During this visit, the president made it clear that China is a top priority in the country's new foreign policy.

Brazil's foreign policy, aimed at friendly engagement with various international players and ultimately securing Brazil's strategic autonomy, appears to be reviving thanks to President Lula's busy schedule, according to longtime adviser and former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. President Lula has already made important visits to Argentina, Uruguay, the USA, China, Europe and Africa.

Some experts believe[1] that Lula government's decision to visit China is evidence that it adheres to the principle of "active non-alignment." This principle becomes one of the features of the modern world, which is becoming multipolar and in which Brazil (and other Latin American countries) must put its own interests first, with various factors both geopolitically and economically involved at different levels and different ways. Lula's government declared its neutrality in the conflict, rejecting offers from Western powers such as Germany to provide ammunition to the Ukrainians[2]. Brazil will also strive to remain neutral in important geopolitical competitions such as the strategic struggle between the United States and China.

Brazil's foreign policy establishment is making a concerted effort to avoid the growing structural rivalry between China and the US as a zero-sum game. Therefore, Brazil will prefer to divide its relations with allies based on strategic goals[3]. This, in principle, allows its foreign policy to interact with various countries on mutually beneficial terms.

Additionally, symbolism plays an important role in Brazilian foreign policy. Political and diplomatic gestures are often no less significant than actual agreements. The purpose, timing and size of diplomatic delegations are not random events; they are closely related to the main goals of foreign policy. A juxtaposition of the Lula government's visits to the US and China in early 2023 reveals a lot about Brazil's views on each partnership in the context of intensifying systemic rivalry[4]. Thus, the delegation to China consisted of about 240 participants, while the members of the delegation to the United States were more closed.

New Brazil-China relations.

Since 2009, China has been Brazil's most important trading partner[5]. In 2022, Brazil exported $91.26 billion worth of goods to China, mostly soybeans and minerals, and imported $61.5 billion worth of mostly manufactured goods from China[6]. Total bilateral trade volume in 2022[7]amounted to $152.8 billion, representing a 37-fold increase since the start of President Lula's first term in 2003.

In addition to significant bilateral trade, Brazil and China have intensified their diplomatic engagement in recent decades, with China designating Brazil as its first official "strategic partner" in 1993. In 2012, China upgraded the relationship to "global strategic partner" status, indicating that China views Brazil as a key partner in its international strategy.

At a meeting on April 14, 2023 with Xi, Lula signed 15 memorandums of understanding and 20[8]agreements on a wide range of issues that concern agribusiness, an alliance against hunger and poverty, cooperation on social issues, industrial and technological innovation, investment in energy distribution, climate change and even space cooperation. Of course, some of these areas are causing great discomfort in Washington, despite ongoing assurances from the Brazilian Foreign Ministry that relations with Beijing will not negatively impact the long-standing partnership with the United States. However, in one of his speeches, Lula boldly stated that no one will stop Brazil from improving relations with China[9],

It's also important to remember what Lula said[10]on monetary sovereignty, which criticizes dependence on other currencies such as the dollar and calls for a BRICS-friendly currency.US as the world's reserve currency during the inauguration of former President Dilma Rousseff as head of the BRICS New Development Bank. Lula called for a direct challenge to the dominance of the American currency. In this regard, the recently signed rial-yuan currency exchange agreement is expected to simplify and reduce the cost of bilateral trade, allowing it to completely bypass the US dollar. Some fear Lula's words could damage Brazil's neutral position. As Brazil seeks to take a non-alignment approach rather than simply looking to the West, where systemic rivalry between the US and China is intensifying as the president appears to embrace Chinese views on trade[11].

President Lula's visit to Chinese tech giant Huawei's innovation center in Shanghai was another highly anticipated trip. Lulu was greeted with great pageantry and stage and toured Huawei's research and development centers[12], looking forward to investing in Brazil's 5G and upcoming 6G telecommunications infrastructure, as well as collaborating on artificial intelligence development. This is understandable given Huawei's presence in Brazil for over 25 years and its contribution to the development of the country's telecommunications infrastructure. However, the visit could create uncertainty and concern among members of the US Congress, which in turn could lead to obstacles and difficulties regarding subsequent investments in Brazil.

On the technical front, China and Brazil also decided to establish a working group, paving the way for further Chinese investment in Brazil's semiconductor industry. China is expected to collaborate with 11 existing Brazilian semiconductor manufacturing facilities and invest in Ceitec (a government-owned semiconductor research and development center).[13 ]

There are also some political difficulties in bilateral relations. China has not publicly supported Brazil's historic bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite Chinese rhetoric that the architecture of the international system must be changed, China is hesitant to support Brazil's demand for membership in this structure of the organization, as can be seen in the joint declaration issued after the previous visit[14].

Although no proposal was made at Lula's meeting with President Xi specific plan to establish peace between Russia and Ukraine or a list of countries participating in this plan, his attempt to use this visit to China to support a "Peace Club" consisting of "neutral" countries capable of agreeing to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was , perhaps one of the most visible manifestations of Lula's "active non-alignment" foreign policy. Lula is counting on the political influence he accumulated during his first two terms as president (2003-2010), when Brazil experienced significant economic development and was a prominent voice in the Global South, to cement his reputation as a mediator. Lula's "Peace Club" appeals to the deeply ingrained idea among Brazilian diplomats that Brazil's destiny is to be a major consensus builder in international relations.

Conclusion

The purpose of Lula's visit was to test his strength in balancing Brazil's interests in a world where geopolitical conflicts are becoming increasingly prominent. In a world that is now more complex than it was twenty years ago, will President Lula be able to restore his foreign policy course? In 2023, the world looks set to be much less tolerant of middle powers that take significant geopolitical risks.

Lula's trip to China marked the beginning of Brazil's grand geopolitical balancing act, in which everything from symbolism and timetables to rhetoric and agreements will be scrutinized by both the United States and China for any hint of which country is on the rise and which is not. in decline in long-term strategic competition.

1. Heine J. Non-Alignment is Back in the Global South, Albeit in a Different Incarnation // Boston University Global Development Policy (GDP) Center February 27th, 2023 [Electronic resource] URL:https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/02/27/non-alignment-is-back-in-the-global-south-albeit-in-a-different-incarnation/ (date of access: 07/05/2023).

2. Marins C. Qual o lado do Brasil na guerra? Neutralidade na Ucrânia vira aposta arriscada para o governo//Estadão 02/24/2023[Electronic resource] URL: https://www.estadao.com.br/internacional/o-lado-do-brasil-na-guerra-da-ucrania-neutralidade-do-itamaraty-no-conflito-vira-elefante-na-sala/ (access date: 07/11/2023).

3. Brasil puede promover el crecimiento de su economía y luchar contra el cambio climático [Electronic resource]. URL: https://blogs.worldbank.org/es/latinamerica/brasil-crecimiento-economico-cambio-climatico (accessed 20.09.2023).

4. STUENKEL O. Courting Lula, China Seeks to Show It Has More to Offer than the US // Americas Quarterly APRIL 12, 2023 [Electronic resource] URL: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/courting-lula-china-seeks-to-show-it-has-more-to-offer-than-the-us/ (access date: 07/11/2023).

5. Brazil (BRA) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners // The Observatory of Economic Complexity [Electronic resource] URL:https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra?yearSelector1=2021 (access date: 07/11/2023).

6. New Brazilian President willing to expand relations with China //China-Lusophone Brief (CLBrief)[Electronic resource] URL:https://www.clbrief.com/new-brazilian-president-willing-to-expand-relations-with-china/ (date of access: 07/08/2023).

7. Ellis E. The State of and Prospects for Brazil's Relations with China//Global Americans, March 15, 2023[Electronic resource] URL:https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/03/the-state-of-and-prospects-for-brazils-relations-with-china/ (date of access: 07/08/2023).

8. Acordos assinados pelo setor privado e por entes públicos brasileiros por ocasião da visita do Presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva à República Popular da China //Ministério das Relações Exteriores Publicado em 14/04/2023[Electronic resource] URL:https://www.gov.br/mre/pt-br/canais_atendimento/imprensa/notas-a-imprensa/acordos-assinados-pelo-setor-privado-e-por-entes-publicos-brasileiros-por-ocasiao- da-visita-do-presidente-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-a-republica-popular-da-china (date of access: 07/05/2023).

9. Silva Junior A. Lula fala em autonomia e diz que 'ninguém vai proibir que o Brasil aprimore suas relações' com China // Estadão 04/14/2023 [Electronic resource] URL:https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/lula-fala-em-autonomia-e-diz-que-ninguem-vai-proibir-que-o-brasil-aprimore-suas-relacoes-com-china/ ?utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce&utm_campaign=manchetes&utm_term=20230414&utm_content=(date of access: 07/05/2023).

10. Lula llama a los países a abandonar el dólar y comerciar con monedas locales // Expansión vie 14 abril 2023 [Electronic resource] URL:https://expansion.mx/economia/2023/04/14/lula-llama-paises-abandonar-dolar-comerciar-monedas-locales(date of access: 07/05/2023).

11. China says it will set up yuan clearing arrangements in Brazil //ReutersFebruary 7, 2023. [Electronic resource] URL:https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/china-says-it-will-set-up-yuan-clearing-arrangements-brazil-2023-02-07/(access date: 07/11/2023).

12. Ninio M. Na China, Lula manda recados aos EUA: discursa contra o dólar e visita Huawei, empresa 'inimiga' dos americanos // O Globo 04/13/2023 [Electronic resource] URL: https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/ noticia/2023/04/na-china-lula-manda-recados-aos-eua-discursa-contra-o-dolar-e-visita-huawei-empresa-inimiga-dos-americanos.ghtml(date of access: 07/09/2023).

13. China e Brasil vão assinar acordo de cooperação em chips, 6G e inteligência artificial // Folha de S.Paulo [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2023/03/china-e-brasil-vao-assinar-acordo-de-cooperacao-em-chi.... shtml (access date: 09.20.2023).

14. Declaração Conjunta entre a República Federativa do Brasil ea República Popular da China sobre o Aprofundamento da Parceria Estratégica Global - Pequim, 14 de abril de 2023 // Ministério das Relações Exteriores [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.gov.br/mre/pt-br/canais_atendimento/imprensa/notas-a-imprensa/declaracao-conjunta-entre-... da-china-sobre-o-aprofundamento-da-parceria-estrategica-global-pequim-14-de-abril-de-2023 (date of access: 09/20/2023)

15. .Zhuoran L . The Future of the China-US Chip War // The Diplomat March 02, 2023 [Electronic resource] URL:https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/the-future-of-the-china-us-chip-war/ (date of access: 07/09/2023)

16. Lazarus L The Friction Points in Brazil-China Relations // The Diplomat April 12, 2023 [Electronic resource] URL:https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/the-friction-points-in-brazil-china-relations/ (date of access: 07/09/2023).