Serbia and BRICS

On the sidelines of the economic forum in Vlapostok on September 4, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin made it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Belgrade is a strategic partner and "ally of Russia".

Putin greeted his Serbian colleague Aleksandar Vučić, whom he invited to attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan.(1)

Source: TASS

This Slavic solidarity, however, was not approved by the European Union. The next day, EU foreign affairs spokesman Peter Stano said that maintaining or even intensifying ties with Russia at the time of its illegal aggression against the Ukrainian people is not in line with EU values.

Vulin's visit to Russia may have been even more difficult for the EU to accept because recently there have been signs that Serbia is getting closer to the European bloc.

At the end of August, Serbia signed an agreement with France to replace old Russian MiGs with new French Rafale jets. It previously concluded an agreement with the EU on the exploitation of lithium for the production of batteries for electric cars.

However, conflicting messages are common for Serbia under Vučić, who during his 12 years in power led a multi-vector foreign policy, balancing relations with the West, Russia and China.

However, those who hope that the purchase of the Rafale and the lithium business is a sign of his wholehearted turn to the West are wrong.

This was clear when Vucic said at a press conference with the French president on August 29: "I know that Emmanuel (Macron) would like me to impose sanctions on Russia. But we did not do that and we are not ashamed of our decision." And here we come to the essence of Vucic's policy, he wants to lead the policy of Tito's Yugoslavia, that is, the policy of neutrality.

Serbian officials still like to say that Serbia is the "East of the West" and the "West of the East". Vučić's balancing approach has strong precedent in the politics of longtime Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito, who was one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement, an alliance of states that maintained a neutral position between the Western and Soviet blocs.

Serbia, however, is not as strong as Yugoslavia once was - and this means that Vučić's policy requires greater flexibility and constant adjustment.

Vučić is adept at making arrangements with Serbia's international partners, making sure to give something to all interested parties, but, most importantly, not giving everything to anyone.

In this regard, the EU is the largest investor in Serbia, including the one and a half billion euros that the European Union recently earmarked for Serbia.

However, Russia controls the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), and China, through the Zijin Mining Group, owns 63 percent of RTB Bor, the largest mining company in the country.

Vučić also opened Serbia to the Arab world. The United Arab Emirates invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the Belgrade on Water project, plus in the Serbian military industry.

The USA was not left out either. In May, Serbia made an agreement with Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, to build a commercial and residential complex on the ruins of the former Yugoslav Ministry of Defense in the center of Belgrade, which was destroyed during the 1999 NATO campaign led by the United States.

With the presidential elections in the USA in November, many observers interpreted this agreement with Kushner as preparation of the authorities in Serbia for a possible return of Trump to the White House.

However, in a recent interview with the British Financial Times, Vučić insisted that it was purely a "business venture".

As always, he tries to position himself well between the different sides. "My friend (Hungarian Prime Minister) Viktor (Orbán) is 100 percent on Trump's side," Vučić told the Financial Times.

"My friends from Brussels are 100 percent on Biden's (Joe) side. I'm not. I'm on the Serbian side and I'm waiting for the results," said Vučić.

He took a similar approach to Ukraine, trying to persify risks. Although it refuses to support Western sanctions against Russia, Serbia at the same time provides grenades to Ukraine through third countries worth 800 million euros from 2022, or one third of the total European contingent.

Russians and Serbs are historically and spiritually close, and Serbia diplomatically relies on Russia, for example, in blocking Kosovo's admission to the UN.

Nevertheless, Vučić tries to keep his distance from Russia in certain situations.

Vučić reservedly responded to Putin's invitation to join the BRICS summit in Russia in October, saying that Serbia will have important guests during that period. However, a few days later he moderated his answer, saying that he will make a decision on going to the summit on October 10 or 15 because he does not want to refuse or accept anything.

"There is no doubt that it is an important call, as we have previously scheduled important visits," said Vučić.

At that time, Serbia is expecting the visit of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Speaking at the Globsec forum in Prague on August 31, Vučić dismissed the idea that Belgrade is the Kremlin's "Trojan horse", saying he had not had personal contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin for two and a half years.

It should be borne in mind that almost 70 percent of Serbia's trade goes to the European Union, and the economy is the main reason why Vucic often complies with the demands of the West.

That is why Vucic tries to lead a policy of sitting on four chairs. And that means cooperation with Brussels, Moscow, Washington and Beijing. That is why attentive observers of the situation in Serbia can notice that at one point in Serbia you have the Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting, then a few days later the First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba arrive. Then Vučić goes to the Russian Cultural Center in Belgrade and gives a patriotic speech. And then, two days later, he talks with the EU about economic growth plans.

It is important to point out that at the end of last year, Vucic spoke about BRICS during the highly watched Serbian TV show "Cirilica".

There Vučić stated that Serbia needs a European path, and that joining the BRICS is currently not an option, no matter how tempting it sounds to Serbian people. Talking about the conversation he had with the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed, during his stay in Belgrade, during which the first man of that Gulf country revealed to him that he plans to join the BRICS . Vučić stated that bin Zayed asked him how old his younger son was and what kind of environment he would like to live in. "In twenty years, when your little son is twenty-six, think about where you want him to live." "Do you want him to live in Europe, which will then account for seven to eight percent of the world's GDP, or to live in some new organization that will have 40 or 50 percent of the world's GDP," said Vučić. He added that he explained to bin Zayed that BRICS is also an attractive option for people in Serbia. Vučić explained that BRICS, unlike the EU, does not have common bodies, institutions, or currency, and does not have the same degree of unity as the EU. "I listened to him for an hour after that." He approached it with great enthusiasm and extraordinary ambition. Knowing how wise, serious, dedicated, hardworking he is and knowing that he has the best intelligence in the world, I have been thinking about it every day since then, but at this moment Serbia needs a European path, and the path to BRICS is not an option for us at the moment, I say that openly", pointed out Vučić.(2)

From all the above its clear that although Vucic said that he will decide in mid-October whether he will travel to Kazan for the BRICS forum, there are little chances that he will go to the forum because he does not want to resent the West. However, the delegation of Serbia will certainly be present, probably headed by Aleksandar Vulin.

On the other hand, Republic of Srpska and its president Milorad Dodik lead an openly pro-Russian policy. President Dodik has already announced that he will come to the BRICS forum in Kazan. He discussed this with the Russian ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Igor Kalabuhov. During the meeting, the determination to continue and deepen cooperation between the Republic of Srpska and Russia for the sake of political, economic and economic growth and prosperity was highlighted, the Cabinet of the President of the Republic announced.

During the meeting, Ambassador Kalabukhov presented Dodik with letters of support from the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Medvedev.

Expressing gratitude for the letters of support, the President of Srpska emphasized that Republika Srpska is a reliable partner for the Russian Federation.

 

• https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/regija/putin-pozvao-vucica-na-samit-brics-a-u-rusiju-srbijanski-predsjednik-ga-odbio/240905060
• https://www.politika.rs/sr/clanak/589188/Vucic-Svakog-dana-razmisljam-o-BRIKS-u

 

 

Author: Slavisha Batko Milacic