... was a whirl of change in the region. The immediate post-popular uprisings phase had played out. Crucially there was new leadership in Saudi Arabia, finding its feet, still deciding on its direction. There was uncertainty in the region following the JCPOA nuclear deal, questions of where American-Iranian relations would go. And there was a sense of game on, that everything was up for grabs.
The Obama administration seemed to have been encouraging a gradual move towards a balance of power in the region,...
... diplomatic representatives of countries in the Middle East region, as well as experts from various research institutes.
Russian International Affairs Council was represented by Pyotr Kortunov, RIAC Program Coordinator, who made a report on the future of the JCPOA. A number of other issues related to security in the Middle East were touched upon during the conference: confrontation between the Gulf countries and Iran, prospects for resolving the Palestine-Israel conflict, potential escalation of regional ...
... confrontation?
US withdrawal from the “Nuclear Deal” as a starting point
Andry Kortunov, Michel Duclos:
A Crisis Management Mechanism in the Middle East Is Needed More Than Ever
Washington’s desire to “update” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), through a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran, failed to capture explicit support even from the American allies. The EU trio “E3” (the UK, France, Germany) remained politically committed to the “Nuclear Deal”. Nevertheless, in ...
... Major General of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in Iraq.
Soleimani’s assassination was the latest manifestation of Washington’s maximum pressure policy on Iran, following
US’ unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
.
To be sure, the targeted assassination of a high-ranking military leader of a UN member state—and a regional power—is a major escalation in US-Iran
bras de fer
, dialling up fears across the region of a major conflagration.
Andrey Kortunov:
...
... sanctions against banks. They are simply being ousted from the international financial system.
Indicatively, this order was introduced against Iran in response to its partial cancellation of commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Tehran adopted a course towards gradual curtailment of the JCPOA after Washington unilaterally walked out from the deal in May 2018 and fully restored its sanctions against Iran, which were valid before 2015. However, up until recently, Executive ...
... prevent a major war with unpredictable consequences is running out. Neither in Washington, nor in Tehran they are eager to start such a war, but the mixture of the Iranian pride and the US arrogance makes a highly explosive cocktail.
Pyotr Kortunov:
JCPOA: Forward Into the Past
Unfortunately, all prospects for bilateral negotiations between Washington and Tehran are gone at least for another year. It means more than the end of hopes to reach a compromise on easing the US sanctions and on accepting ...
... and international organizations taken together [
1
]. This is not accidental. Sanctions are often imposed by economically developed countries which enjoy significant economic superiority over target countries.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Withdrawal From the JCPOA and Anti-Iranian Sanctions: Pros and Cons
There are other reasons for the popularity of unilateral measures. In the case of the UN, the decision to impose restrictions must be taken by the Security Council based on consensus. Adoption of resolutions ...
... US in the foreign policy, security and economic domains. This process will take time, and the EU and US will continue to be close allies, but we are slowly starting to see movement in this domain. All of this stems from Trump’s decision to exit the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran nuclear deal) and Europe’s adamant insistence that the agreement should be preserved as a stepping stone for further dialogue with Iran on the Middle East.
Please tell us about Russia–EU cooperation ...
... Macron firmly holds the initiative on the European side.
Andrey Kortunov:
Like a Suspended Gym Teacher: Why We Should Not Expect Russia to be Welcomed Back into the G7
A serious move was made as regards Iran, too. Since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 many analysts have given up hope that the EU can save the deal. The skeptics saw more than enough arguments to think so. Brussels and other European capitals were indignant over the US demarche but the US president couldn’t care less....
Sooner or later, the Emerging Situation Will Force the Trump Administration to Make the Difficult Choice between the JCPOA and a New War in the Middle East
In the last few months, the U.S.¬–Iran confrontation has been rapidly and steadily plunging the Middle East into the atmosphere of an impending armed conflict. The main stumbling block for Tehran and Washington ...
