... be fully extended to deter non-nuclear threats to Belarus from, for instance, NATO members. This “umbrella” has been reinforced by the stationing of Russian nuclear arms in Belarus and joint exercises to practice the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons. These changes are clearly warranted, given the situation on the ground (and in the air). At the same time, cooperation within the Union State in non-strategic nuclear weapons is closely linked to the escalation of military confrontation ...
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In this regard, lowering the threshold for the use of atomic weapons and expanding the number of situations in which Moscow allows this step is long overdue. Just as the wording of the previous version of the doctrine, which stated that the use of nuclear weapons in a non-nuclear conflict was only possible in the event of a threat to Russia’s very existence as a state, was no longer in line with global realities. Now this threshold has been lowered, and the use of nuclear weapons in a non-nuclear ...
... major war as a real possibility gradually shifted from the tabloids to respectable analysis. While such a topic had been considered inappropriate, ignoring it became increasingly difficult as the signs of general disorder multiplied.
Many agreed that nuclear weapons prevent a world war, i.e., a direct clash between the great powers. The prospect of total destruction, or at of least unacceptable damage, still restrains them from the sort of behavior seen in the first half of the 20th century. But history ...
The presence of colossal stockpiles of nuclear weapons in two or three great military powers reduces the likelihood of a general war in its traditional sense
The presence of colossal stockpiles of nuclear weapons in two or three great military powers reduces the likelihood of a general war ...
... unnoticed for another decade. Everything changed on March 23, 1983, when U.S. President Ronald Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) to develop a missile defense system with space-based components (“Star Wars”), which aimed to render nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete”. This proposal translated into a massive scientific and technical effort as well as testing of a wide range of weapons and command-control-information systems.
So long as the results of the program were unclear,...
... dangerous due to the involvement of non-nuclear-weapon states in the preparation and planning of US nuclear operations. The essence of “extended deterrence” is changing: “nuclear umbrellas” are being replaced by supporting the possible use of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear forces. This trend is particularly evident in the interaction between Washington and Seoul, which established the Nuclear Consultative Group and approved (on the margins of the NATO summit) the Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence ...
... in this area.
Third, that confrontation was between two global adversaries and the blocs led by them. China, of course, was also a factor, but to a greater extent for Moscow, and the dynamics there were different. As far as we can tell, battlefield nuclear weapons enjoyed more attention. At the same time, the geography of U.S. and Soviet troop deployments and the degree of allied involvement was also different.
Fourth, China is not interested in doing anything about its INF-range weapons, let alone ...
... belief that every conceivable reason for nuclear war has disappeared. A new era of globalisation, with its emphasis on economic cooperation, has dawned. For the first time in history, the hegemony of a single power, the US, has been established globally. Nuclear weapons remain in the arsenals of the great powers - though fewer than at the height of the confrontation - but the fear of their use has faded. More dangerously, a new generation of politicians has come to the fore, unburdened either by the memory ...
... for a first nuclear strike during the period of an escalation threat could be estimated at 73 carriers and 455 charges within 24 hours, and 121 carriers or 1,139 charges within 30 days. Of particular significance are the U.S. plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, including medium-range missiles, which further increases their strike potential. In this context, the development of missile defense as a clear counterforce poses a direct threat to the entire world.
Global plans with minimum justification
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Dmitry Trenin:
In fact, the weakening of the nuclear nonproliferation regime was the result of the collapse of the USSR and the inability of the Russian Federation (or some another power) to maintain military and political balance in the world. Thus, nuclear weapons appeared in India, Pakistan, and the DPRK; Iran relaunched its nuclear program; Iraq and Libya carried out some activities in the same direction. In other words, the establishment of the US-centered world order forced the countries that ...
