According to European and Russian experts on the Middle East, use of force against Syria is fraught with dire consequences. On September 23, Russian International Affairs Council held a meeting of analysts from European Council of Foreign Relations and Russian Middle East experts. According to Daniel Levy, ECFR Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, settlement of the Syria situation should impact both relations with Iran and its talks with the "group of six" on the nuclear program. Mr. Levy believes that the Syria and Iran issues should be linked. When intentions for military solution in Syria prevail, Iran's domestic situation goes one way, but if diplomacy takes over, events in Iran develop quite differently. The paradigm affects Iran's relations with the U.S.A. and the "group of six".
According to European and Russian experts on the Middle East, use of force against Syria is fraught with dire consequences.
On September 23, Russian International Affairs Council held a meeting of analysts from European Council of Foreign Relations and Russian Middle East experts.
According to Daniel Levy, ECFR Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, settlement of the Syria situation should impact both relations with Iran and its talks with the "group of six" on the nuclear program. Mr. Levy believes that the Syria and Iran issues should be linked. When intentions for military solution in Syria prevail, Iran's domestic situation goes one way, but if diplomacy takes over, events in Iran develop quite differently. The paradigm affects Iran's relations with the U.S.A. and the "group of six".
Russia had called upon Damascus to place chemical weapons under international control and then destroy it. However, Irene Zvyagelskaya, Chief Research Fellow at RAS Institute for Oriental Studies, insisted that Russia could not ensure implementation of Syria's pledge. "Russia cannot guarantee that Mr. Assad acts this way. First of all, like it or not, he has his own principles. He cannot just leave not to fail his family, the Alawite community and religious minorities… I do not understand why some insist we should push Assad or make him act along certain lines… we cannot do so," she said.
On the other hand, Russia cannot keep pushing the Syrian regime. "Speaking of certain European states, I have an impression that they still remain in the 20th or even 19th century, insisting on such language as "use of force", you must make him", you must press on him", said Veniamin Popov, Director of MGIMO Center for the Partnership of Civilizations. "Some Western colleagues find it difficult to realize that the 21st century is free from religious, ethnic and national problems that could be settled by force. What we need is negotiating."
Alexander Shumilin, Director of the Center for the Analysis of Middle East Conflicts at the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, noted that the role of international community in the Middle East is swiftly shrinking, with the void filled by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf monarchies.
In conclusion RIAC Program Director Ivan Timofeyev said: "The key problem of the Syria conflict is in the shortage of political order and sovereignty. The opposition is fragmented, and if the Assad regime caves in, maintaining sovereignty and control over the situation would be unlikely. On the other hand, if Mr. Assad wins, in the midterm he is sure to provide order, although in the long run it seems doubtful, since he would not be able to settle the intra-societal differences. A solution could be found by movement in two parallel directions. One is peaceful settlement, and two is gradual modernization of the political regime and its rules that should be accepted by the pragmatic opposition segments. Whether the process goes along authoritarian or democratic lines, seems a technicality, although the only way out. The God or the devil is in the details, as they say, so it is the details that we should focus on attempting to find a settlement for Syria."
Russian International Affairs Council keeps working on its project "Middle East: Political Dynamics and Russia's Interests" aimed to provide short- and midterm analysis of the Arab Spring consequences for Russia's interests in the region, as well as to draft political solutions and recommendations for their implementation.
Expert Meeting Program
Meeting of analysts from European Council of Foreign Relations and Russian Middle East experts
