On April 29, 2020, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held an online conference "The Future of Africa in the Context of Energy Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic". Igor Ivanov, RIAC President, made an opening speech. He pointed out that Russia's task in Africa following the pandemic is to present a strategy and define priorities with the countries of the continent, built on the decisions of the 1st Russia-Africa Summit, held in Sochi in October 2019.
On April 29, 2020, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held an online conference "The Future of Africa in the Context of Energy Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic". Igor Ivanov, RIAC President, made an opening speech. He pointed out that Russia's task in Africa following the pandemic is to present a strategy and define priorities with the countries of the continent, built on the decisions of the 1st Russia-Africa Summit, held in Sochi in October 2019.
The speakers of the conference were: Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General; Tatyana Mitrova, Director of Energy Centre at Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, Board Member at Schlumberger; Oksana Antonenko, Director at the Global Political Risk team at the UK-based Control Risks Group; and Natalia Zaiser, Chair of the Board, Africa Business Initiative, Head of RIAC Africa-Russia+ Working Group.
The conference focused on the issues of global energy crisis, its differences from past oil crises, the impact of the crisis on African countries. The speakers presented scenarios of the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic on the continent, the impact of the coronacrisis on various industries, the economic and social development of African states. Experts discussed the role of integration associations on the continent, the existing and the expected problems in the work of humanitarian missions and programs supervised by international organizations.
Following the reports, the speakers answered the questions of the conference participants.
Talking Points
Igor Ivanov on the development of cooperation between Russia and African countries:
Russia's task is to prevent a rollback in relations with African countries. It is necessary to use the momentum set by the 1st Russia-Africa Summit. First of all, it is necessary for Russia to define priorities: why are we returning to Africa? Just to make money, strengthen our international presence, help African countries, or to participate in the formation of the new world order together with the African countries? Some general statements of a fundamental nature were made at the first Summit, now it is necessary to move from general statements to specificity.
Andrey Kortunov on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on African countries and the first consequences:
We see two main scenarios for the development of the pandemic in Africa. The alarmist scenario suggests a pandemic focus shift to the countries of the Global South. However, the events are now developing according to a relatively optimistic scenario for Africa. Africa suffers more from the indirect effects of the pandemic rather than from direct ones.
Tatiana Mitrova on the situation in the energy markets:
The profitability of new projects is being put to a serious test. Most of the new oil and gas projects cannot be implemented at this level of energy prices. All East African projects will get time extension. The situation with an oversupply of oil may cool down the activity of external actors in the Libyan conflict, and then the prospects for a settlement may depend more on the domestic players. The forecasts are unfavorable for the domestic political situation in Nigeria, forced to seriously reduce oil extraction.
Oksana Antonenko on the dynamics of the pandemic in Africa, its economic consequences, and the situation with debt obligations of African countries:
So far, the situation in Africa is much better than in Europe. Only 5 countries have more than 1 thousand diagnosed patients. IMF predicts a 5 per cent decline in African economic growth. This indicator is better than in many developed countries. African governments respond more quickly to threats. According to Google, the decline in economic activity amounts to about 30% in Africa, while in Europe it gets to 80%. The population of Africa is poorly quarantined. For many people this is not even possible. In the event of a growing spread of diseases, healthcare systems in Africa will not cope with the burden. The most affected industries in Africa are global tourism, oil production and mining of other natural resources. It is likely that all countries dependent on these industries will enter into a recession with a drop in GDP of about 10%. However, there are countries with a growing GDP IMF forecast. These are all countries with a high level of domestic consumption, a high share of agriculture in the economy, and also with a developed private sector.
Natalia Zaiser, on the impact of coronacrisis on the civil society in Africa:
Despite the fact that the situation in Africa is developing according to an optimistic scenario, there are several other factors that pose serious threats to society: the energy crisis, the closure of borders, the reduction of activities by international humanitarian organizations, the likely reduction in investment, and threats to agriculture (drought, locusts, reduction in the supply of machinery and food products from abroad).
Economic difficulties might cause a socio-political outburst. The way the situation will develop in Africa will depend on the success of mobilizing young people, the effectiveness of the African Union, whose role as an integration tool is still insufficient, the position of national elites, and the support from developed countries.
What can Russia do? First of all, provide healthcare support. The global system must be escalated to a new level, the level of preventive actions. Energy cooperation, including in facilitating the transition to renewable energy. Humanitarian cooperation and support of interpersonal contacts. Africa expects an active position of Russia on partnership, friendship, and mutual assistance, as China, being the main investor in Africa, has taken a firm line on debt cancellation. The basis being laid now will define the position Africa will have in the new world order.
