On June 7, 2023 in the run-up to the meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Sochi the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) with the substantial support of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) held a round table discussion «Prospects of Eurasian Integration under New Circumstances. International Experience in Adapting Integration Practices to the Changing Reality».
During the event, leading Russian and foreign experts discussed the experience of regional integration groups in adaptation to the changing international reality, and the possibilities of its use for the further development of economic integration in Eurasia, the combination of reactive and proactive approaches in the work of the EAEU, as well as promising areas for cooperation between the EAEU and non-Western countries.
On June 7, 2023 in the run-up to the meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Sochi the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) with the substantial support of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) held a round table discussion «Prospects of Eurasian Integration under New Circumstances. International Experience in Adapting Integration Practices to the Changing Reality».
During the event, leading Russian and foreign experts discussed the experience of regional integration groups in adaptation to the changing international reality, and the possibilities of its use for the further development of economic integration in Eurasia, the combination of reactive and proactive approaches in the work of the EAEU, as well as promising areas for cooperation between the EAEU and non-Western countries.
RIAC Director General Ivan Timofeev welcomed the participants of the discussion. The keynote speech of the opening session was delivered by Sergey Glazyev, Member of the Board — Minister in charge of Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), which was devoted to the impact of shaping a new technological pattern on the development strategy of the Eurasian Union in the context of the world economic order transformation. Sergey Glazyev presented the key provisions of his report «On the Possibilities of Economic Development of the EAEU in the long term», prepared together with D. Mityaev and S. Tkachuk. Tkachuk. The theses of the speech, which are open for publication, include the following:
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Long economic cycles occur every 100 years, triggering a shift in technological and world economic order. Typically, a technological revolution is followed by a serious economic crisis: however, while developed countries experience some major difficulties, the developing ones have an opportunity to use the transition period to complete a qualitative transformation.
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Current change in the world economy began with the collapse of the Soviet Union and, at this stage, ends with the erosion of Pax Americana.
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The governance system that has emerged in Southeast Asia has proven to be much more effective than the institutions of the Western system of global economic governance. In the future, it is likely that the development of the new pattern will continue at the expense of competition from China and India, and today it is necessary to work out the answer to the question of what place EAEU will have in the new system.
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In terms of geopolitics, China and India’s views of the future world order differ significantly, but in terms of the development model they have a lot in common: in particular, their approaches to strategic planning, the functioning of public-private partnerships, and a significant state presence in the management of the banking system. The Chinese model, however, is focused on the growth of social welfare.
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Now Russia is on the periphery of global economic development trends, partly because it has long followed the so-called "Washington Consensus" development model, which implies reducing the share of state regulation in the economy, rather than maintaining leverage on macroeconomic processes and investment in priority sectors, which is what we lack today.
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Russia can produce up to 85% of its own imports and can increase exports through production facilities, which are currently underutilized. Today they operate at 65% capacity due to the high interest rate of the Central Bank of Russia, which causes a decrease in internal consumer demand. Russia needs a new integral system of economic management, implementing the best Indian and Chinese practices: strategic planning, restrictions on the export of capital, strategic investment lending, etc.
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However, it is crucial to understand, that the "window of opportunity" will close at some point. It will take considerable effort to catch up with states that are already in the process of transitioning to a new technological paradigm. Nanoelectronics, bioengineering, additive technologies can become a basis for the transition, but to reach the leading positions in these areas, new efforts will be required, including joint efforts with the EAEU states.
The roundtable discussion was held in two closed sessions.
In the first session, «Transformation of the EAEU External Contour. International Experience and Development Strategy under New Circumstances», the experts discussed the way the EEU states can combine proactive and reactive approaches to interaction with their partners, participation in global financial, climatic and energy regimes against the background of transformation described by Sergey Glazyev.
Elena Danilova, Deputy Director, Integration Development Department, Eurasian Economic Commission; Vladimir Pereboev, Head, Centre for Integration Studies, Eurasian Development Bank; Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Elena Stoyanova, 1st Category analyst, Centre for Economic Integration, Institute for Development of Integration Processes, Russian Foreign Trade Academy;
Irina Zvyagelskaya, Head, Center for the Middle East Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy, RIAC member, as well as Nataliya Zaiser, Chair of the Board, African Business Initiative Union, presented their speeches. Gohar Barseghyan, Director, Integration Development Department, Eurasian Economic Commission, and Alexey Dobkin, Director, Eurasian Integration Department, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, participated in the discussion.
The second session, «Achievements and Promising Areas for Economic Cooperation with Non-Western Countries» was devoted to the EAEU participation in macroeconomic processes, negotiations on the development of free trade zones, and the interests of key and potentially important EAEU partners.
Dmitry Mityaev, Assistant to the EEC Member of the Board (Minister) on Integration and Macroeconomics; Sergey Chernyshev, Assistant to the EEC Member of the Board (Minister) on Trade; Mahmoud Shouri, Deputy Director, Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (IRAS); Sanjay Deshpande, Director, Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai; Xue Poling, Head, Russian Economy Department, Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies (IREECAS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); and Kelly De Souza Ferreira, Head, International Relations Program, Campinas Pontifical Catholic University made speeches during the session. Alexander Starkov, Head, Eurasian Economic Integration Division, First Department of CIS countries, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, summarized the session.
Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director, Leading Research Fellow, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), National Research University Higher School of Economics, and Elena Danilova, Deputy Director, Integration Development Department, EEC, moderated the discussion.
