On October 24, 2022, the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs (RIAC) held a roundtable "Current China Policy Emphasis and Prospects for Russian-Chinese Relations". The event marked the occasion of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and took place at the press center of the Rossiya Segodnya News Agency
Aleksey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC Member; Alexander Lukin, Acting Head of the Institute of China and Modern Asia, Director of the Center for East Asia and SCO Studies at the Institute of International Relations, MGIMO University; Andrey Karneev, Head of the School of Oriental Studies, Higher School of Economics; and Igor Denisov, Senior Fellow at the Center for East Asia and SCO Studies at the Institute of International Relations, MGIMO University, attended the roundtable.
Thorough an open discussion the participants summed up the results of the XX CPC Congress, held on October 16–23, 2022. They discussed the new challenges for the Chinese government, identified the goals of China's domestic and foreign policy for the next five years, and assessed the meaning of the Congress' results for China's relations with Russia and other powers.
On October 24, 2022, the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs (RIAC) held a roundtable "Current China Policy Emphasis and Prospects for Russian-Chinese Relations". The event marked the occasion of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and took place at the press center of the Rossiya Segodnya News Agency
Aleksey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC Member; Alexander Lukin, Acting Head of the Institute of China and Modern Asia, Director of the Center for East Asia and SCO Studies at the Institute of International Relations, MGIMO University; Andrey Karneev, Head of the School of Oriental Studies, Higher School of Economics; and Igor Denisov, Senior Fellow at the Center for East Asia and SCO Studies at the Institute of International Relations, MGIMO University, attended the roundtable.
Thorough an open discussion the participants summed up the results of the XX CPC Congress, held on October 16–23, 2022. They discussed the new challenges for the Chinese government, identified the goals of China's domestic and foreign policy for the next five years, and assessed the meaning of the Congress' results for China's relations with Russia and other powers.
Main points
Aleksey Maslov
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The 20th CPC Congress has rhetorically retained the features of previous Congresses and brought about new ones: instead of “reforms and openness”, it is now focused on “development and renewal with reliance on domestic resources”. The Congress showed a high degree of consolidation of power within the CPC. The new Politburo was formed on the basis of personal loyalty of its members to Xi Jinping.
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China opposes the usual trends of global development and hegemony of particular states, offering its own model. Today, Beijing can be expected to take up a new, tougher and more decisive foreign policy. This is the kind of China suitable for the successful development of relations with Russia.
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Although China's position on Russia has noticeably evolved over the period of special military operation in Ukraine, China's own well-being remains the priority of its policy. Russia may hope for China's support if it is in Beijing’s interest, but should not demand from China what it has never promised.
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China has long been a role model in terms of its rapid economic growth, but now it is facing serious external challenges, forcing it to shift to long-term planning. If China succeeds in rethinking its geostrategic concept, it will emerge from the crisis unscathed, as well as become a new engine for global social development.
Alexander Lukin
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The Congress has shown that everyone in the party is ready to follow Xi Jinping, so the popular narrative about an internal split in the party or its fractional nature is no longer relevant.
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The current leadership is moving away from the legacy of Deng Xiaoping and his principles of government formation: loyalty is now more important than age standards, which the age composition of the new leadership combination perfectly illustrates.
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China’s COVID-19 policy is humane, because the government cares about people's lives. In the U.S., however, individualism prevails, which is why there are 200 times fewer deaths from COVID-19 in China than in the U.S.
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For Russia China's active foreign policy and the aggravation of its relations with the West may mean further improvement in bilateral relations with the PRC.
Andrey Karneev
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The Congress demonstrated that China is prepared for new challenges and shocks – “stormy weather”. Xi Jinping's new government was composed specifically to deal with emerging challenges in the future.
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Xi Jinping departs from the views of Deng Xiaoping in his quest to build the “economy of justice”. He proclaims a cooperative movement of society as a whole toward economic prosperity instead of the ideas of achieving prosperity by groups of individuals.
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China must now work out a new model for state development and overcome the transition period, which is why the state now needs a strong leader, Xi Jinping. The basis of the new model must be high technology.
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It is important for China to concentrate on technology development and turn super-high economic growth into moderate-high growth, so as not to repeat the unfortunate example of Japan after its “economic miracle”.
Igor Denisov
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The foreign policy part of Xi Jinping's report at the Congress seems to be the most important and sensitive for China, the country is apparently preparing for “black swans” and “gray rhinos” – foreign policy challenges that may arise unexpectedly. The period of geostrategic opportunities for China's growth has come to an end, and the government now approaches the assessment of the global environment with caution.
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China is currently finding itself in the uncomfortable position of having everything around it unpredictable. The world, according to the Chinese government, is at the historical crossroads.
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China is in no hurry to resolve the Taiwan issue by force and is adhering to the “one country, two systems” policy. The Chinese government is not pushing for an immediate solution to the issue, but it is an important mission for the party.
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Throughout his 10 years in power, Xi Jinping has adjusted the system of government as he sees fit, built an extremely stable regime, and created the National Security Council, an important party body for China's political security.
