The 3rd Huaihai Forum organized by the Institute for International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) was held in Shanghai on November 22-23, 2015. The main topic of the forum this year covered relations among of the US, China, Russia and the EU, and was entitled “Major Powers Relations in the Context of Post-Ukrainian Crisis and South China Sea Tense Situation.” Forum participants from China, South Korea, the US, the EU, Russia and Japan discussed the state of relations between the key actors in the Asia-Pacific region, namely between the United States and China as well as Russia, between China and Japan with South Korea, the main disputes in the South China Sea, the rivalry for leadership on the world stage. A separate session of the forum was devoted to relations between Russia and China. Are they strategic or tactical? Are they antagonistic to the West’s order? RIAC Program Manager Elena Alekseyenkova delivered a report at this session, which analyzed the policy of Russia in Eurasia: its interests, capabilities and constraints.
The 3rd Huaihai Forum organized by the Institute for International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) was held in Shanghai on November 22-23, 2015. The main topic of the forum this year covered relations among of the US, China, Russia and the EU, and was entitled “Major Powers Relations in the Context of Post-Ukrainian Crisis and South China Sea Tense Situation.” Forum participants from China, South Korea, the US, the EU, Russia and Japan discussed the state of relations between the key actors in the Asia-Pacific region, namely between the United States and China as well as Russia, between China and Japan with South Korea, the main disputes in the South China Sea, the rivalry for leadership on the world stage. The relations between the EU, the US and Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis were a separate topic of discussion. The participants touched upon the issue of cooperation of the leading powers in the fight against ISIL in Syria: Can such cooperation in the Middle East promote dialogue with Russia? How has Russia’s role in the world changed due to intensified efforts to combat terrorism?
A separate session of the forum was devoted to relations between Russia and China. Are they strategic or tactical? Are they antagonistic to the West’s order? RIAC Program Manager Elena Alekseyenkova delivered a report at this session, which analyzed the policy of Russia in Eurasia: its interests, capabilities and constraints. The report’s core message was the assertion that the basic task of Russian foreign policy in the current economic situation is to promote its own economic development and enhance competitiveness. Given that the crisis in relations with the collective West has deprived Russia of getting access to western technology, expertise and finances, cooperation with the countries of Asia-Pacific and the EEU can help find alternative opportunities for growth and development in the form of investment, technology, large infrastructure and transport projects, human capital and labor.
As to the EEU, integration within the framework of the Union allows to reduce significantly transaction costs across the space of a huge market of 180 million people, to remove barriers to the movement of capital, goods and labor, which can become a significant stimulus for the economy of Russia and its neighboring countries. Implementing this strategy, however, faces certain constraints and requires a significant effort, first and foremost, in ensuring security in Central Eurasia. No development is possible without security guarantees. Therefore, preventing chaos and Islamization as well as preserving statehood in Central Asia, the most vulnerable region of the EEU space, is one of the most urgent priorities.
Due to the terrorist attacks in Paris and increased safety requirements in the Russian Federation, the country is faced with a fundamental dilemma of maintaining the integration momentum within the EEU and of guaranteeing the security of citizens at the same time. This dilemma is quite thorny and requires a delicate resolution. As the concentration of militants in northern Afghanistan grows, as more natives of Russia and Central Asia including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan join the Islamic State, as there are signs of destabilized situation in Tajikistan and the problem of demarcation and monitoring of Kyrgyzstan borders with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is yet to be solved, the society and the political elite may opt for restricting the free movement of people within the Union, as is happening now in the EU.
The pace of integration processes in the Eurasian space will depend largely on the instruments that the EEU will be able to use to address the acute dilemmas. Providing security is also a key condition for carrying out China’s Silk Road Economic Belt project across Central Eurasia.
The discussion also covered the issue of interrelation between the EEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt projects, namely whether these projects are complementary or competitive. The report noted that the EEU is a project of institutional integration, while the Chinese one is a set of infrastructure and transportation projects, which excludes the possibility of competition. It was emphasized that the EEU format creates a common space of regulation on its territory, which introduces common measures of tariff and technical regulation, and in some future time common norms and rules of interaction with foreign investors are likely to be set out as well. While carrying out its projects, China, of course, will have to take all this into account. Therefore, the question of complementarity will, to a certain extent, depend on the readiness of China to operate within the institutional rules that are observed within the Union.
