Russian and Indian Experts Discuss Key Issues of Bilateral Cooperation between Russia and India

On June 16, 2023, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the analytical center Synergia Foundation (Bangalore, India) held a round table discussion on Russian-Indian relations in a broad geopolitical context, focusing on topical issues in bilateral relations between Russia and India.

As part of the event, Russian and Indian experts considered the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the further development of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi in bilateral and multilateral formats, including in trade and investment areas under sanctions, and also analyzed new areas for expanding cooperation in the areas of high technology and food security.

The Russian side was represented at the event by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Academic Director; Sergey Velichkin, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation; and Anvar Azimov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation. The Indian side was represented by Tobby Simon, Founder and President of Synergia Foundation; Ranjan Mathai, former Indian Foreign Minister; Pankaj Saran, former Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Russian Federation; Venkatesh Varma, former Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Russian Federation. Yulia Melnikova, RIAC Program Manager, moderated the discussion.

On June 16, 2023, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the analytical center Synergia Foundation (Bangalore, India) held a round table discussion on Russian-Indian relations in a broad geopolitical context, focusing on topical issues in bilateral relations between Russia and India.

As part of the event, Russian and Indian experts considered the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the further development of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi in bilateral and multilateral formats, including in trade and investment areas under sanctions, and also analyzed new areas for expanding cooperation in the areas of high technology and food security.

The Russian side was represented at the event by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Academic Director; Sergey Velichkin, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation; and Anvar Azimov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation. The Indian side was represented by Tobby Simon, Founder and President of Synergia Foundation; Ranjan Mathai, former Indian Foreign Minister; Pankaj Saran, former Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Russian Federation; Venkatesh Varma, former Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Russian Federation. Yulia Melnikova, RIAC Program Manager, moderated the discussion.

Key Points

Andrey Kortunov

• Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict many experts have claimed that these developments will lead to systemic changes in the world order. However, a year later, both the world order and all key players still demonstrate an impressive level of resilience which entails that the system has absorbed the crisis and proved stable.

• Despite speculations in the Western society that the Russian economy was likely to collapse under unprecedented sanctions, the Russian government has managed to effectively control the country’s financial system. Macroeconomic indicators demonstrate that nowadays the Russian economy performs better than before the crisis. Federal budget balancing and mobilizing resources have helped to avoid global recession and to maintain pre-crisis energy prices.

• The Global South demonstrates consistent intention not to be involved in the conflict, which is also manifested in the Indian foreign policy. The country, a major Eurasian power and an active SCO and BRICS member, has its own strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region and nowadays steps up its bilateral cooperation with the USA and other regional nations.

• At the upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi in 2023, it is important for India to encourage a broad discussion on security issues, to promote ambitious reforming of the world order and to act not only as a regional but also as a global power.

• There are three major groups of factors that will affect the new world order and the future of globalization: the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, US-China relations, in which Taiwan remains the main issue, and the cohesion of Western countries after the US elections. So far, the coalition of liberal democracies remains resilient and demonstrates a common stance on supporting Ukraine.

• The next general elections are to be held in India in 2024. Russia hopes that after the elections the bilateral partnership will continue to develop in a mutually beneficial direction.

• Instead of trying to even out the trade imbalance in bilateral trade, Russia could use accumulated rupees to increase investments in India. However, this intention might face India's protectionist policy in the investment market and the country’s concerns about secondary sanctions. It is necessary to boost cooperation beyond the traditional trade areas, including active interaction in joint research projects. Cooperation with counties in Africa or in the Middle East is also promising.

Pankaj Saran

• When the conflict in the Ukraine began, India was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the India-China border dispute. The country had to alter its economic recovery plans and foreign policy ambitions considering these developments.

• India faced a sharp decline in food and energy supplies early in the Ukrainian crisis, which triggered fears of a potentional energy crisis in the country. India has managed to tackle this problem since Russia has provided it with a preferential access to the country’s energy market. However, nowadays Russia has accumulated a large amount of rupees because of the trade imbalance. It is therefore necessary to sign bilateral agreements to overcome this issue.

• Beyond the energy sector, there were various forecasts that indicated an upcoming global recession that would have a negative impact on India's exports. Meanwhile, the supply regime has demonstrated significant resilience.

• Today the Global South feels frustrated as the global security agenda has diverted attention from the development issues in this macroregion. At the G20 summit, India will seek to address these concerns.

• India is in a complicated position, since NATO and Western countries continue to exert pressure on Russia that could further exacerbate international tensions and even split the global community. Moreover, clashes with China on the border demonstrate that this India-China dispute still remains a major national security issue for New-Delhi. Thus, the country has to carefully monitor the relations between the US and China, as well as between Russia and China, and be ready to cope with the existing challenges.

• Russia should take into account in its strategic planning that India's GDP will continue to grow steadily. It will also remain an important global player and a partner for Moscow.

Sergey Velichkin

• As a great power, India enjoys benefits of a closer cooperation with Russia amid the Ukrainian conflict. Under these conditions, it is difficult to assume that the country will agree to a formal alliance with the United States. Though India has been a strategic partner of Washington since 1971, it continues to distrust the West. In addition, Russia remains a strategic Indian partner in energy supplies.

• Deterioration of relations with Russia could provoke a chain of adverse events for India that would lead to an intensified confrontation with China. This scenario doesn’t correlate with New Delhi's interests, given the sensitivity of the border issue for both countries.

• During its presidency in G20, India aims to become an acknowledged leader of the Global South. Today, strengthening of India's leadership in this region is connected with the further development of a multi-polar world.

Venkatesh Varma

• The conflict in the Ukraine has both regional and global dimensions. The most obvious global impact is the volatility in energy and food prices. At the same time, the development of the overall situation contributes to shaping a multipolarity.

• The nuclear rhetoric in Russian media outlets causes concerns in India. Today, the Indian society supports Russia, but also stands for a peaceful conflict settlement. Moscow remains a key actor in building a multi-polar world, but this should be underpinned by negotiations rather than a struggle.

• Russia-India relations need new drivers for further development. Firstly, the countries could cooperate in energy sector, for example, in the Caspian region. Secondly, the bilateral partnership could be accelerated in the investment sphere. India is interested in attracting Russian capital to the country. Accordingly, it is necessary to work on reducing risks of sanction enforcement and finding ways to circumvent these restrictions. The third group of drivers encompasses technologies in various spheres. Finally, the countries might develop new trade routes, including the North-South corridor.

• Russia needs to understand that supporting bilateral economic cooperation might lead to significant risks for India. The Indian economy is strong and grows at a rapid speed, and Moscow could find ways to use rupees in investing in Indian manufacturing. The Make in India program provides Russia with multiple opportunities for these investments.

• Russian-Indian friendship enjoys a significant historical background. The growth of the Indian economy guarantees Russia a partnership with a market-friendly country.

Anvar Azimov

• India is a global power and an important economic player. Russia and India have established a unique strong partnership based on mutual trust, and today Moscow highly appreciates New Delhi's balanced position.

• Russia expresses hopes that the US will not take advantage of cooperation with India to the detriment of bilateral relations between Moscow and New Delhi. In turn, Russia-China relations will never be directed against India.

• Russia could improve the trade imbalance by substituting European goods with Indian alternatives. This entails an inevitable competition between the Indian and Chinese markets. Thus, Russia will adapt its economic policy to the market that will be most profitable.

Ranjai Mathai

• The Soviet period formed strong partnership between India and Russia. Countries like India treat strategic autonomy as a great value. Nuclear security is a policy priority for India. The countries of the Global South resist Western pressure to take an anti-Russian stance. Today, the Ukrainian crisis provides them with new opportunities for development.

• India treats Russia as a strategic ally and cooperates with other countries in the Indo-Pacific region and BRICS to counter China's dominance.

• The concept of BRICS was conceived by Yevgeny Primakov when he developed an idea of the Russia-India-China triangle. Today, all three countries are adapting to the new conditions and incorporating elements of an innovative economy.

• Indian experts may consider creating special platforms for attracting indirect investments from Russia. It is necessary to develop a mechanism to ensure the security of public supply chains which encompasses such areas as coal mining and processing, renewable energy sources, and metal industry.