On October 11, 2024, “Russian-Chinese Dialogue: 2024 model” roundtable was held at the Rossiya Segodnya Agency Press Centre. The event was attended by Andrey Kortunov, Academic Director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Kirill Babaev, Director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ICCA RAS), RIAC member, Xu Changzhi, Deputy Secretary General of the Council for Strategic Cooperation between China and Russia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Artem Pylin, Head of the Sector for Bilateral Relations Between Russia and Its Neighboring Countries of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The experts discussed the topical challenges for Russia and China prior to the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024, highlighted the results of bilateral economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, as well as their interaction in Eurasia, including the linking of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road initiative and deepening integration within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The roundtable participants paid special attention to international matters on the Russia-China agenda: in particular, the upcoming elections in the United States and the developments in the Middle East.
During the event, the participants presented the annual joint report of RIAC, ICCA RAS and the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University (Shanghai, China) “Russian-Chinese Dialogue: The 2024 Model”.
On October 11, 2024, “Russian-Chinese Dialogue: 2024 model” roundtable was held at the Rossiya Segodnya Agency Press Centre. The event was attended by Andrey Kortunov, Academic Director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Kirill Babaev, Director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ICCA RAS), RIAC member, Xu Changzhi, Deputy Secretary General of the Council for Strategic Cooperation between China and Russia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Artem Pylin, Head of the Sector for Bilateral Relations Between Russia and Its Neighboring Countries of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The experts discussed the topical challenges for Russia and China prior to the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024, highlighted the results of bilateral economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, as well as their interaction in Eurasia, including the linking of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road initiative and deepening integration within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The roundtable participants paid special attention to international matters on the Russia-China agenda: in particular, the upcoming elections in the United States and the developments in the Middle East.
During the event, the participants presented the annual joint report of RIAC, ICCA RAS and the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University (Shanghai, China) “Russian-Chinese Dialogue: The 2024 Model”.
Theses
Andrei Kortunov
During the preparation of the APEC Summit in Vladivostok in September 2012, a need for joint study of Russia-China interaction arose. This is how RIAC's partnership with Fudan University came into being. Over the years of cooperation, despite organizational and structural constraints, the parties have managed to form a sense of teamwork, maintain continuity and consistency in their approaches to the analysis of international relations, but also constantly find new dimensions for the report, taking into consideration the trends in the evolution of global processes.
The report “Russian-Chinese Dialogue” is a unique project, a joint barometer of the state of partnership between Russia and China and their positions on the most important contemporary regional and global issues. This year, it reflects the events of 2023 and 2024: a new stage of trade and economic cooperation and geopolitical partnership in a very complex environment with increasing pressure on both countries. The anniversary report is timed, among other things, to coincide with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the establishment of Soviet-Chinese diplomatic relations.
The upcoming meeting of the leaders of Russia and China at the BRICS Summit, like any summit, is a powerful stimulus for the development of bilateral relations, which helps to push officials, experts, and diplomats to address the issues that remain unsolved. For example, in many aspects of international cooperation between Russia and China, it is necessary to move from quantitative to qualitative growth, for instance, by complementing trade with joint production chains.
Russia and China are interested in preventing escalation in the Middle East. It can be said that almost all BRICS members are in favor of resolving the conflict on the basis of the Palestinian state establishment, de-escalation and preventing the spread of hostilities to new territories. However, it will not be easy for the BRICS countries to take a consolidated position on the details of these processes. Moreover, the humanitarian problem, for example, will require the interference of the international community.
The ASEAN integration model is qualitatively different from the EU model as more flexible, less binding and bureaucratised. ASEAN members' positions on various issues, including China and Russia, are more diversified. Now it is very important for Moscow to actively develop relations with the countries of the region, overcoming the previous underinvestment. The PRC's experience, whose trade with ASEAN totals $1 trillion, is useful in this regard.
Regardless of the US elections results, the strategy of ‘dual containment’ aimed at Russia and China will undoubtedly remain intact. Nevertheless, the Democrats traditionally pay more attention to human rights in the world and the search for compromises in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The Republicans, in turn, are ready to conduct a tougher policy, for example, to introduce new tariff restrictions. However, the degree of change will depend not only on the new president, but also on the entire team and the composition of the Congress.
Kirill Babaev
The annual “Russia-China Dialogue” report is a flagship project that is well established in the authorities. It is also one of the most cited informational and scientific sources on Russia-China relations. The high interest in the report is largely due to the fact that the authors do not attempt to conceal problematic aspects of bilateral relations. The material enjoys the trust of readers, and this is the project that should be continued.
Today, the SCO and BRICS exist primarily du e to the initiative of Moscow and Beijing and the co-operation between the two countries. Russia and China are the cementing pillars of both international organisations.
BRICS is humanity's hope for a new system of international relations to replace the one that has virtually ceased to exist. Now the consolidated position of the world majority opposed to the West is becoming louder and louder on geopolitical platforms. However, there is still a long way to go in creating the organisational and legal infrastructure for more systematic security, economic development and financial relations.
The Russia-India-China (RIC) format of interaction that has existed since 2002 is extremely important today, as it unites the three leading Eurasian powers by various parameters: Russia is the largest nuclear power, China is the largest economy, and India is the largest country in terms of population. If the three states can reach an agreement, it will be a significant step towards Eurasian unity. More active work is now underway to strengthen the interaction of the expert community with the prospect of intensifying interaction at the level of relevant ministries.
The U.S. has engaged in the work on establishing a network of military-political alliances in the Asia-Pacific. However, the majority of regional states, including the most of the ASEAN countries, will take a restrained position, despite the US leaders' policy of disuniting the Asia-Pacific countries and engaging them in Russia and China dual containment. Moscow and Beijing should jointly counter Washington's hostile course in the region and increase interaction with the ASEAN states.
Xu Changzhi
The report is in line with the highly changing global context and accurately reflects how Russian and Chinese experts view the new realities and prospects for Russian-Chinese co-operation in building a new world order.
We pay much attention to BRICS and the upcoming summit in Kazan, which is a very important international event at a time of geopolitical instability. China supports Russia's efforts during its chairmanship. BRICS has moved to a new stage of its development and now represents not just the interests of individual countries, but the interests of the global majority. At the same time, BRICS is also an essential platform for Russian-Chinese co-operation on international matters.
Regarding the crisis in the Middle East, the most crucial is a ceasefire and a common endeavour to seek a way to solve the issues through political means.
China has consistently been in favour of establishing a free trade zone as a part of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and the EAEU. Negotiations on this issue have been ongoing for several years, but a political decision by the Russian and Chinese leaders is needed first and foremost to reach an agreement on an FTA.
Now it is difficult to deal simultaneously with both Republicans and Democrats, who view China as the main adversary, but the Chinese leaders do not intend to aggravate relations with other countries, so they will take the necessary measures to reduce political tension.
Artem Pylin
Building co-operation with economically and demographically dynamic Central Asia is a key interest of Moscow and Beijing. Thus, both sides are keen to intensify their interaction with the region, considering cooperation as a new stage of the development based on trade and economic ties along with investments. Meanwhile, energy co-operation with Central Asia is also of particular value to China.
For Russia, Central Asia has traditionally been one of the key ‘neighbourhood belts’, and the country is building friendly and trusting relations with it across the whole range of areas of cooperation. Particularly important are the tasks of providing the Russian market with labour migrants and maintaining markets for raw materials and energy products. Due to the sanctions, Central Asia plays a crucial role of a mediator: through Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, Russia receives a part of goods within the framework of permitted parallel imports.
The EAEU can claim to be one of the poles of the Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP), showing a high degree of adaptability to external shocks, having reached pre-crisis levels of mutual trade. The report focuses on the interests, possible projects and visions of Russia and China in building interaction with the GEP regions, given the potential of the EAEU and the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.
More flexible forms of cooperation should be introduced in the EAEU, for instance, project-based and intra-industry cooperation. The latter can change the imbalance in economic relations between Russia and China, which is a consequence of the inter-industry trade structure, where Russia supplies energy resources and receives goods with higher added value in return. Today, the EAEU partners take sanctions risks into account, but business should actively propose new solutions.
