On July 14, 2020, Hanns-Seidel Stiftung held an online discussion on the U.S. Presidential Election: what implications will the election results have on relations with Russia and Germany? Experts from RIAC, Hanns-Seidel Stiftung, and the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University took part in the workshop.
On July 14, 2020, Hanns-Seidel Stiftung held an online discussion on the U.S. Presidential Election: what implications will the election results have on relations with Russia and Germany? Experts from RIAC, Hanns-Seidel Stiftung, and the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University took part in the workshop.
Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, and Jeffrey Rathke, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at the Johns Hopkins University, discussed possible scenarios for the development of the U.S. foreign policy and relations with Russia and Germany after the November elections. The experts noted that although the possible election of Joe Biden could make the U.S. foreign policy more predictable both in relation to allies (Germany) and in relation to opponents (Russia), one should not expect a radical change in Washington's foreign policy line. For Russia possible advances in maintaining the strategic arms control regime are likely to be "balanced" by a more active support for Ukraine, as well as more active promotion of a value-based approach to international relations. In turn, Donald Trump keeping his Presidency is also unlikely to lead to the resolution of the existing contradictions between Moscow and Washington, and at the same time tensions between Berlin and Washington will remain.
According to Andrey Kortunov, the results of the upcoming elections will not bring many changes for Russia and Russian foreign policy. A radical change in the dynamics of Russia-the U.S. relations is possible only with a strong president in the United States and a broad inter-party and elite consensus. At the same time, the situation is likely to resolve after 2024, with a gradual change of generations of political elites, both in the United States and in European countries.
