After over 200 years, Russia’s commitment to the Caucasus remains firm
On November 9, Russia signed a
peace statement
with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending the most recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Overall,
Moscow emerged as the clear winner
by ending hostilities, introducing peacekeepers, and maintaining its central role in the vital Caucasus region. However, Russia’s direct ...
The question is whether Russia has an interest today in completing what it started in Karabakh
Russia managed to stop the second Karabakh war after its mediation in completing a historic agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After completing the full implementation of the terms of the agreement (among them are "land swaps" or land passages), Moscow will control transportation between Armenia and part of the Karabakh enclave across the territory ...
... for a decade longer; Moldova is torn in both directions, but leaning more toward the West; Azerbaijan is closely allied with Turkey; Uzbekistan is vociferously independent; and Turkmenistan is reclusive, shunning foreign connections. That leaves only Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—five out of fourteen ex-republics—as Moscow’s formal allies and partners. In many of those countries, however, particularly in Central Asia, China has long been a major outside player.
Moreover,...
In the end, the Kremlin could indirectly benefit from a military presence in the region
On November 10, 2020, Moscow announced its decision to send peacekeeping troops to Nagorno-Karabakh following the attack of its Mi-24 helicopter over Armenia, thus putting an end to more than six weeks of intense fighting and several decades of skirmishes between the pro-Armenian separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
Michael Lambert:
Who’s Who in Nagorno-Karabakh
Russia's choice is resembling ...
... Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order”, Samuel Huntington used the example of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to demonstrate the conflict between the Christians and Muslims and civilizational clashes. When Huntington was writing his book in the 1990s, Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan were fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. The American thinker cited this conflict, together with the Balkan conflict to illustrate the transition of world order and regime changes after the Cold War. However, contrary ...
... solely positive light.
Now, this presence is viewed with increasing frequency as an unfounded waste of shrinking resources. For instance, the Russian public has expressed an implicitly negative attitude towards a possible interference into the Azeri-Armenian conflict. It may be concluded that, given the pandemic, the so-called “Crimean consensus” is becoming entirely ineffective, and it is becoming harder and harder to justify Russia’s hyperactive foreign policy in the eyes of the country’s ...
A Russian fallout with Armenia or Azerbaijan would mean Moscow losing its long-term influence and ability to manoeuvre in the region
From a geographical perspective, the location of the Azerbaijani city of Tovuz, which witnessed penultimate clashes between Azerbaijan and ...
... attack on the Republic of Artsakh. The clashes, and with them military and civilian victims on both sides, are ongoing at the time of writing. Yet another escalation of the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Republic of Artsakh and neighbouring Armenia have introduced martial law and total mobilization, while Azerbaijan introduced martial law and a curfew, with partial mobilization being declared on September 28. International entities such as the United Nations, the European Union, as well ...
... Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that would be useful for external players to keep in mind, as without their help the conflicting parties are unlikely to be able to find a way out of an acute and dangerous situation for the international community.
The new Armenian-Azerbaijani war (I think that the current escalation in the armed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) can be called a war, albeit a low or medium-intensity one) has revealed two circumstances. First, there is a close connection between events ...
... the fundamental question of what the belligerents' expectations are and what diplomatic and military means they have at their disposal
The return of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory that has been disputed between Azerbaijan and Armenia for several centuries, raises the fundamental question of what the belligerents' expectations are and what diplomatic and military means they have at their disposal to impose themselves on the ground.
In Soviet times, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous ...