... the Islamic Republic of Iran, the swift implosion of the Syrian regime would have been impossible. However, the likely impact of the regime change in Damascus will undoubtedly have much broader implications than just a shift of power balance between Israel and Iran in favor of the former.
Aleksandr Aksenenok:
Syrian Reconstruction in a Changing Regional Context: Challenges and Opportunities
These days in Moscow, there is a lot of lamenting about Russia’s large-scale political, financial and military investments ...
... to a major war between Israel and Iran, the official Russian position remains cautious. In the end of October Vladimir Putin
stated once again
that strategically Russia had nothing to gain, but would encounter additional problems in case the current Israeli-Iranian confrontation evolves into a major regional war. A wider regional instability might, of course, send the global oil prices going through the roof, but this instability would also have unpredictable political and economic consequences—most likely,...
... allies who were assisting Israel in the Doomsday War. The member-states of this Organization used economic tools to influence Israel's allies and support Egypt and Syria in the conflict with Israel. Such actions notably contrasted with the state of Iranian-Israeli relations, which were quite constructive until the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Ivan Bocharov:
Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Regional Implications
Much has changed since then; Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Egypt have officially ...
... a vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war. For various reasons, Arab countries are not ready to escalate tensions with Israel, nor do they want to spoil their relations with Iran. The risk of the Iran-Israel confrontation escalating into a full-scale regional war seems rather limited at this point in time.
However, there are risks that the Iran-Israel confrontation may enter a new stage. Tehran's response to the Iranian attack depends on what Israel's ...
... another major regional conflict. The military operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip was to be followed by fierce hostilities in the West Bank, then by a large-scale border clash between Israel and Lebanon, and, finally, by an Israeli–Iranian war, which had been looming on the political horizon for years and was literally just a step away, with the likely involvement of several key regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return ...
Soviet influence in the Middle East was ultimately useless, and now it seems Washington is heading down the same path
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has been going on for several weeks now. However, none of the parties directly – or, indeed, indirectly – involved in Middle East politics are keen to see events there escalate into a larger military conflict.
In other words, the situation ...
... acting unilaterally. This is probably the most common form of deterrence today. More precisely, it’s desirable because it does not involve major hostilities and the risks associated with them. It doesn’t always work, however.
Coming back to the Iran-Israel axis, both sides are aware of the impossibility of achieving their desired goals through a full-on direct clash. Hence, the constant brinkmanship, including extremely provocative steps, in the expectation that the response will not cross any red ...
... revenge strike that targeted Iranian air defence radar systems in the province of Isfahan, where the Natanz nuclear facility and military industrial complex—including drone and ballistic missile factories—are located. The IDF has thus sent a message: Iran is vulnerable. Israel’s military superiority—specifically, its air force—will play a pivotal role in Iran’s strategy. Is Iran willing to gamble and lose what they spent years and billions of dollars on building a nuclear weapons program? It would not be so far ...
... implications of this assassination extend to the regional power struggle. Haniyeh's assassination, particularly on Iranian soil, can be interpreted as a direct challenge to Iran's support for Hamas. It underscores the ongoing proxy conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting Israel's determination to counter Iranian influence in the region. This operation is not merely a tactical maneuver but more of a political calculation designed to bolster Prime Minister Netanyahu's standing domestically and internationally....
... we cannot support either terrorist or military activity. Russia maintains political contacts, including with Hamas and Hezbollah. But for Israeli society, this has always been and will always be an aggravating factor in Russian–Israeli relations. Israel’s arch enemies are Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, while we have constructive relations with them. Let me remind you that Hamas and Hezbollah are designated as terrorist organizations in Israel, while in Russia they are not. This is also brought up against us. But we have our ...
