Escalation signaling is a tremendously difficult task that allows for some flexibility but also raises the risks of further escalation
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated an unprecedented use of missile capabilities and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by both militaries. While Ukraine’s capabilities present a significant military-technical challenge for Russia, the fact that they are supplied by third parties, including the United States, has become a political issue aggravating...
The main result of 2023 has been the transition to a new normal in foreign and domestic policy in Russia
The main result of 2023 has been the transition to a new normal in foreign and domestic policy. In comparison, 2021 was a year of gathering clouds. At the time, an impending rupture was in the air, but to many it seemed unlikely. The reality of the thirty years since the end of the Cold War—the reality of peaceful life, openness and cooperation—had become too familiar. In relations with the...
As the world's two super-nuclear powers, the relations of Russia and the U.S. are inseparable from nuclear risk
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia and the United States have been engaged in an almost open nuclear game, but in different forms and with different objectives. Both Russia and the United States are well aware of the presence of the nuclear weapons factor in this conflict. Russia's main objective is to deter the United States and NATO from directly intervening...
... is possible only via compromise. In this sense, assessing the likelihood and content of negotiations should be coupled with an analysis of the real capabilities and intentions of the parties to defend their interests under the current conditions.
The Ukrainian crisis that has snowballed into an intense military-political conflict between Russia and the Western nations supporting Ukraine implies a clash of the political interests, whose significance is defined by the participants as vital and crucial,...
The cost of a conflict with Russia for the United States will be measured not only and not so much by support for Ukraine, but also by the enormous cost of containing the Russian-Chinese tandem
The aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is an indicator of the growing imbalance in the existing system of international relations. This imbalance is characterised by the emergence of new conflicts and resumption of old ones, with large-scale human casualties and risks of further escalation....
... mention the media—undergoes transformations that would have driven crazy the great Publius Ovid, an ancient Roman poet with his immortal
Metamorphoses
, which have fascinated Europeans for two millennia.
The threat of nuclear war
Aleksey Arbatov:
The Ukrainian Crisis and Strategic Stability
Contrary to the common perception that nuclear weapons should exclusively “serve to deter aggression and prevent war,” nuclear war is more likely to happen today than ever before, nearly eight decades after ...
The EU will experience the full impact of its misguided foreign policy
Article Review
In an
article
for the
Meer Magazine
, Michael von der Schulenburg explores the opportunities the EU has missed in the context of the ongoing conflict in and around Ukraine, while noting that politicians, think tanks and media across Europe are once more embracing the belief that weapons are the only means of ensuring security. This dangerous belief, he argues, has resulted in the sacrifice of human lives in...
Report No. 85 / 2023
Report No. 85 / 2023
The Taliban’s (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) rise to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 and the conflict in Ukraine have both had an impact on regional trends in the Middle East. This report sheds light on the transformation of new elements in Middle Eastern state relations and examines the changing role of key players in the region. It analyses the impact that the events in Afghanistan and Ukraine have had on the...
Five questions regarding China-Russia relations and Chinese policy through the prism of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
One unexpected outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that China-Russia relations have taken center stage in global affairs. Even though China is not a party to the conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine crisis has nothing to do with the PRC and the conflict’s termination does not hang upon China, Sino-Russian relations are a major variable in the international environment where this...
The world’s power center’s journey, a half millennium later, will have come full circle. Russia is not a bystander, but part of the action, pushing for change
The war in Ukraine, which to most Russians—and not just the Kremlin—is a direct, if not yet a kinetic military conflict with the American-led West, has been reshaping Russia massively from within. The economy, faced with the most severe sanctions so far imposed on any country, is not only seeking ways to go around the sanctions or substitute...
