... preceded by years of mutual accusations, fuelled by new technological realities, the collapse of other arms control mechanisms (including the ABM Treaty), suspicions of new system developments, and the presence of such systems in third countries, notably China. During Trump’s first term, the extension of New START was nearly derailed, only to be salvaged under the Biden administration. In 2023, amid the SMO, Russia suspended its participation in New START.
The Stabilizing “Basic Principles”: Moscow ...
... Europe for tactical aviation, as well as to build new long-range standoff (
LRSO
) cruise missiles for strategic aviation.
Prospects for strategic stability
Zhao Huasheng, Andrey Kortunov:
Prepare for the Worst and Strive for the Best. Russia’s and China’s Perceptions of Developments in International Security
The concept of strategic stability has many different interpretations, with some broadening it to include the idea of comprehensive security, which inevitably shifts the discussion into the realm of political rhetoric. In contrast,...
... supplying large amounts of the military hardware and ammunition to Moscow. Many politicians and analysts suggest that the emerging partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang creates new significant problems not only for the West or for Ukraine, but also for China: from now on Beijing will find it more difficult to exercise any political pressure on North Korea, because the latter will use its newly established links to Moscow as a tool to lessen its dependence on Beijing.
Let us have a closer look at what ...
... manganese, limestone, phosphates, marble, salt, gypsum and oil—but will the trio manage to extract them on their own (though jointly) in commercial quantities to gain economic sovereignty, not just political one? Or all hopes are again pinned on Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and other non-Western nations? And if so, is “sovereignty” the right word here? Of course, “dependence” on Russia, for example, would differ from neocolonialism by ensuring “fairness” and “equality between partners,” ...
... further escalation. The U.S. has no interest in a major regional war in the Middle East with an uncertain outcome, especially in the run-up to the presidential election in November. Thus, Washington is focused on maintaining the regional status quo. China has even less reason to welcome such a conflict, in the first place because it would immediately drive global hydrocarbon prices up and create many transportation and logistics issues for Beijing.
Moscow could possibly count on some short-term gains ...
... optimal balance of allies and rivals will be able to conserve resources, and if confrontation is inevitable, will be able to withstand it, emerge victorious, and make use of the results of victory.
Ivan Timofeev:
Trump or Harris: Does it Matter for China?
The current state of international relations demonstrates a steady tendency towards the multiplication of deterrence tasks among the three key global centres of military power—the United States, China and Russia. Each of them has an increasing ...
... (although the author of these lines has privately expressed this view for many years).
The North initially hoped to complete the unsuccessful “campaign to liberate the South” that started in 1950 (and nearly ended in complete disaster, were it not for China’s intervention). Yet by the 1970s, amid détente between the United States and North Korea’s “patrons”—the Soviet Union and China—Pyongyang came to understand that its hopes of defeating a stronger South Korea, heavily backed by the ...
... the 21st century, the whole idea of junior and senior partners looks outdated and even archaic. True international partnerships are based on mutual respect, empathy and a carefully calibrated balance of interests
When the current dynamics of Russia-China relations is discussed, the conversation often boils down to the concept of a "senior-junior partnership." A popular view—especially in the West—is that with more cooperation between the two nations, Russia is gradually, but inevitably,...
... significant military capacities of their own. The two Nordic nations can also boast of fat defense budgets that they are willing to contribute to NATO’s activities in the European North.
Anatasia Tolstukhina:
US Technology Policy amid Rivalry with China
Furthermore, the US defense contractors have received a golden shower that they had not seen in many decades. US European allies are currently dumping their old military hardware in Ukraine and are standing in line for the newest US made systems....
... recently met again in Astana. The Russian-Chinese mutual commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons against each other also plays a significant role.
Zhao Huasheng, Andrey Kortunov:
Prepare for the Worst and Strive for the Best. Russia’s and China’s Perceptions of Developments in International Security
There is also a Russian-Chinese agreement on notifications of launches of ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles. It is possible to use such mechanisms in the future to reduce regional and global tensions involving new states....
