... open to new stages of escalation. For example, Kiev could use a dirty atomic bomb against Russia, which could be met by a retaliatory strike from Moscow. A radical scenario will bring to its limit all those weaknesses in the structure of European and international security that have been accumulating over a long period of time. In this case, the world order really risks collapsing in a classic form for the history of international relations—through an armed confrontation between major powers. The ...
In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails
A Retrospective Introduction
In 2008–2012 we published results of a long-term research project on the alternative scenarios of Russia’s future in several publications including ‘
On Russia: Perspectives from the Engelsberg Seminar 2008
’ from the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The project purported to make two major steps: first, to generate scenarios ...
.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia is preparing a military campaign against Ukraine. The supposed goal is to break the deadlock of the Minsk Agreements, to impose further coexistence conditions on Kiev and its Western partners, to prevent...
... able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade
In November 2020, the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing ...
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’...
... disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic partnership that safeguards peace and stability in Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing major ...
... of shaping Ukraine’s civic nation). Some can be considered primarily within the bilateral context, while others need to be analysed against a pan-European or even global background.
Given the great diversity of these factors, a matrix of possible scenarios of Russia–Ukraine relations may be constructed along two axes. The first axis reflects the possible evolution of Ukrainian society and state (the “weak Ukraine — strong Ukraine” axis), the second reflects the possible evolution of the ...
... countries.
Alexey Gromyko, RIAC member and Director of the RAS Institute of Europe, and Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, took part in the work of the Dahrendorf Symposium and addressed the meeting.
Programme
European Union in the World 2025 – Scenarios for External Relations
