... al-Hawa checkpoint.
Vladimir Bartenev:
International Assistance to the Middle East and North Africa: Managing the Risks
Closing the Bab al-Hawa checkpoint for cross-border humanitarian operations would seriously affect the humanitarian situation in Idlib. Russia has decided to extend the mechanism for providing assistance through this checkpoint. However, time should not be wasted. An international effort is needed to move humanitarian convoys to Idlib across the contact line and in cooperation with the ...
... access. While these will only be diplomatic failures for the US and Russia, it is the Syrian people who will, as ever, pay the highest price.
Russia and the EU in Syria: Need for New Approaches? RIAC Working Paper
But a mutually beneficial solution to Idlib is still possible. Russia and the US, backed by European states, should agree to a new formula whereby Moscow greenlights a final one-year extension of cross-border aid in exchange for a Western agreement to increase aid flows via Damascus, including through Russia’s ...
... analyze the pivotal points of the Middle Eastern crises and to which extent the interests of Moscow and Tehran overlap or contradict each other. Some of the key issues of the political situation in the region were assessed, such as the situation in Idlib, the prospects for a political process in Syria, Israel’s role in the region’s future, the path to Syria’s reconstruction and the impact of U.S. policies on the emerging new order in the Middle East. Both Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran regard each other as necessary components of the regional architecture that they envision for the Middle East. The paper attempts to shed light on the views of Moscow and Tehran on these issues.
Russia and Iran ...
... himself increasingly view the “Idlib question” through the lens of a difficult dialogue with Russia on the Libyan and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts (on October 25, Russia’s Aerospace Force delivered a strike against the Syrian Corps militants in Idlib, which Russian media dubbed “
Bakh for Karabakh
” [
1
] ). Turkey has started relocating eight military observation posts in Idlib, as those posts had been blocked in an SAA-liberated area (the post in Murek was evacuated on October 19-20, 2020), which is ...
... and provoke Damascus to consider a large-scale operation. The Russian Air Force periodically carries out air raids on terrorists.
An “equivalent exchange” would be a way out of the problematic situation. Turks do not prevent Assad's invasion in Idlib up to the M4 highway, and Russia allows Ankara to push YPG out of the border area outside “Peace Spring”, Jerablus — Tel Abyad (100 km) and Ras Al Ain — Сizre (220 km).
On the scale of the Syrian conflict, the neutralization of the HTS in the northwest and the withdrawal ...
... the town of Khan Shaykhun. Approximately 200 Turkish soldiers are still surrounded in the town of Murak, which makes the situation extremely uncomfortable for Ankara. This Turkish contingent served as an observation post established under the Turkey–Russia Memorandum on Idlib signed in Sochi on September 17, 2018 as part of de-escalation in the Idlib zone.
The situation deteriorated following reports that the Syrian Air Force had carried out an aerial strike on a Turkish convoy. After a telephone conversation between ...
... negotiations as “substantive and effective”. Erdogan added that the leaders of Troika discussed "all steps", that is, all options on this issue.
With less than two months left until the next summit of the “Astana troika”, the situation in Idlib may prove to be a catalyst for positive change within the Russia-Iran-Turkey alliance, bringing intra-alliance cooperation to a whole new level, or it may trigger the onset of its collapse. Urging against such a split, Erdogan told his partners: "If we have passed the sea, we cannot drown ourselves in the ...
... structure. A case in point is Horas ad-Deen, a group of radical zealots who had split from HTS but later rejoined it.
Second, failure to implement the Sochi agreement is increasing the legitimacy of the ongoing military operation against terrorists in Idlib. Supported by Russia and Iran, the Syrian government forces feel free to conduct this operation in the province that is essentially controlled by terrorists. On the other hand, Russia and Turkey can fight foreign terrorist fighters and radical groups in Idlib, while ...
... the preparation of the constitution a “purely sovereign affair” of the Syrian people without “any foreign intervention.”
The transition to the political phase is also taking place in an atmosphere of military-political uncertainty around the Idlib province, where the last major terrorist centre remains. The armed opposition is split, with various actors having different attitude to the requirements of the guarantors of the Astana troika (Russia, Turkey, Iran) about the creation of a demilitarized zone, including the withdrawal of militants and heavy weapons. Under these conditions, such a political wing of the opposition as the High Negotiations Committee, recognized as a partner in the ...
... war-torn country. The break of Idlib deal is especially dangerous for the mainstream parties in the EU when far rights gain power from Sweden to Italy.
The single looser of EU–Russia–Turkey alliance is the United States. If four countries agree on Idlib, Russia and Turkey will have more capacity and common ground to raise the question of the American presence in the East Euphrates. Last week Lavrov reminded the US is playing a dangerous game by creating Syrian Kurdistan. The US will do anything possible ...
