... tries to maintain a balance between supporting Armenians, its traditional ally, and avoiding stirring up Azeri nationalism within Iran.
The regional map of influence has undergone drastic changes, with Iran losing much of its traditional sway in the South Caucasus following Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. These changes come at a time when Iran’s regional and international standing is far from ideal. In this context, tensions with Moscow reveal a complex diplomatic game that requires Tehran to be highly ...
... flows.
Russia is fully ready to support further normalization of Armenian–Azerbaijani relations.
The role of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in the current geopolitical landscape is of particular relevance to Russia and Azerbaijan alike. Restoring transport links among the South Caucasus nations will help cultivate both economic and political relations within the region and will also have a positive effect on the development of cooperation between the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The 3+3 consultative regional platform ...
... Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement in late 2021, European Council President Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron twice
called
Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a bid to find common ground between EU interests and the Sochi-Moscow Russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia negotiating format.
Andrey Petrov:
Peace in South Caucasus: What Awaits Russia in Armenia?
The beginning of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine overhauled this balance. First of all, the positions of Russia and the West have become holistic. There is no room left for nuances or shades. That ...
... factor can be perceived as a healthy competition for the arms market.
Implications for Turkey
Lana Rawandi-Fadai:
What North-South International Transport Corridor Means for Iran
One of the beneficiaries of the change in the balance of power in the South Caucasus following the 2020 war is Turkey. It has
legitimized
its military presence in the region,
signed
a strategic document with Azerbaijan and successfully
promoted
its "3+3" negotiation format, which was accepted by the key centers of power—Russia and Iran. In other words, the expansion of Turkey's political, diplomatic and military presence in the South Caucasus ...
... Iranian case where Moscow has to assist Tehran with the completion of the Astara-Resht railroad section of the North-South ITC.
Azerbaijan’s friendliness towards Russia
is also a consequence of its sobriety and its sense responsibility. Russia and Azerbaijan border on each other in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, being brought together by centuries-old ties. Unlike neighboring Georgia and Armenia, where historical and humanitarian factors do not prevent the authorities from aspiring to Euro-Atlantic integration projects, Azerbaijan ...
... businesses.
Opportunities
Under-explored markets such as renewable energy, biological agriculture and high-tech;
Affordable and skilled labour resources available;
Possible regional cooperation between the three main countries - Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan - instead of seeking different alliances outside the South Caucasus
Threats
Remaining ethnic tensions (internal and external) and the constraint of continuous political repetition compulsion regarding the de facto autonomous territories;
Laissez-faire the corruption and cronyism at all levels of the ...
... Caucasus, the war of Russia and Turkey, etc. Another defrosting mechanism can be a regional war, which arose initially due to the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh — Turkey, Russia and, less likely, Iran may be involved into a full-scale war of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This may also involve Georgia in these catastrophic processes. In this sense, the key to peace in the South Caucasus lies in Nagorno-Karabakh. The settlement or at least a deep freeze of this conflict can mitigate most of the regional military risks.
1
. Military Balance 2018. IISS. 2018. p. 187
2
. Ibid
3
. Ibid
4
. Ibid
5
. В ожидании бури: ...
... Russia and the EU will continue developing their strategic partnership on energy security cooperation. The need for this is dictated by the interdependence of the Russian and European economies on fuel imports and exports. However, the EU regards the South Caucasus region (and Azerbaijan, in particular) as a potential energy supplier along with Russia in terms of diversifying its energy resources.
At the same time Russia and the European Union are trying to limit each other’s influence in the energy sector. Europe has ...
... and 19 wounded). In the second quarter of this year, there were 44 casualties (38 killed and 6 wounded). Many leaders of the Islamist underground, such as Aliaskhab Kebekov, the ringleader of the terrorist Caucasus Emirate, were eliminated
[6]
. In Azerbaijan, religious radicals have been split (in the southern part, they look up to Iran and Shiite Islam, while in the northern part – to Dagestan and the Salafi movement)
[7]
. Commenting on threats to the Georgian national security, Defense Minister ...
... ‘muscular diplomacy’. With America’s focus on the Middle East and the winding up of the war in Afghanistan in 2014, US goals in the region are under question. Russia is exploiting the lack of concrete US foreign policy goals in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan and Georgia are looking forward for more concrete US engagement in the region. Georgia is willing to be a full NATO member and Azerbaijan may wish the same. However, Azerbaijan is hesitating to openly demonstrate its ambition without an offer ...
