... leverage over the new authorities in Damascus if they deviate from an “acceptable” development trajectory. The first restrictions to be relaxed are in energy, transport and financial spheres—so vital for ordinary Syrians.
Russia’s prospects in Syria
Russia’s current position on Syria can be described as cautious and yet to be clarified, much like the overall situation in the country and its future. The Kremlin is trying to consider all possible scenarios in Syria and maintains relations with all ...
... Moscow has supported Bashar al-Assad in his fight against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
[1]
—a group, which has roots in al-Qaeda and may have the most radical post-Assad political agenda; however, now Russia is negotiating with HTS its future presence in Syria. The Russian side has contacts to other influential groups in Syria including Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and Kurdish-based Syrian Democratic Forces. One should not underestimate deep Russia’s links to the Alawite community in the West of the country....
...
Most importantly, the symbolic quest to restore Russia’s great-power status – a key motivation behind the 2015 Syrian operation – is now obsolete. The only priority that matters is concluding the Ukraine conflict on favorable terms. Unlike in Syria, where Russia can pull back if needed, Ukraine represents an existential challenge. It is a conflict that Moscow cannot afford to lose.
This is the critical distinction: In the Middle East, the Kremlin has room to retreat and regroup. In Ukraine, there is no ...
Damascus and Ankara sharing more and more interests
The leaders of Syria and Turkey have recently made frequent public declarations of their readiness to start the process of normalizing bilateral relations soon, with Russia as a mediator. Syrian President Bashar Assad, while receiving Russian President's Special Envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev on June 26, 2024, acknowledged that he viewed the reconciliation positively. In turn, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
suggested
in his ...
... political agendas and move toward reconciliation. This shift benefits all parties involved and helps in gradually resolving the remaining crises.
What has been evident in the Turkish approach for years is the necessity of working and coordinating with Russia and Syria, as long as Washington continues to support Ankara’s adversary, the PKK/YPG, under various names. The U.S. policies do not align with the historical alliance between the United States and Türkiye, or within the framework of the partnership in ...
... Summits for Democracy hosted by the Biden Administration in late 2021 and in the spring of 2023, raising questions about why these “disqualified” nations should stand by the principles of the club that they have not been admitted to. [
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Russia and Syria
Russia’s approach to Syria has not undergone any radical changes over the past year. In view of the costly military operation in Ukraine, the Kremlin has to save money wherever it can; this is likely to affect Russia’s non-military assistance to Bashar ...
The goal of the round table was to discuss the dynamics of quadrilateral cooperation in the context of regional trends in the Middle East. The meeting was attended by leading experts from Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria
On October 18, 2023, a closed round table “Cooperation between Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria in the Context of Regional Dynamics” was held. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in cooperation with Institute for Iran & Eurasia studies ...
... high-ranking officials from these countries have paid official visits to Russia in June 2023, including UAE’s President and Qatar’s Prime Minister. As for the UAE, it is worth noting that the country became the greatest reseller of Russian gold in 2022. Russia’s gold exports to the Emirates in 2022 totaled 75.7 tons or $4.3 billion.
Another important factor shaping the Middle East’s approach to international relations is Turkey’s foreign policy. Particularly important, is Turkey’s position on Syria prior to the presidential elections in May 2023, and the new aspects it has now acquired following the victory of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Judging by the leadership’s recent steps, Turkey wants to maintain continuity with its ...
... and non-interference of world powers (not only Russia, but also the United States, and China), as well as regional players.
Ivan Bocharov:
In the Grips of the Army: The Egyptian Economy
From the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the situation in Libya, Russia and Egypt share similar positions on many issues on the region’s agenda. It is also important that Egypt favors restoring Syria's sovereignty over all its territories, although Cairo has not restored diplomatic relations with Damascus yet.
Cooperation between Russia and Egypt in the energy sector deserves special attention. In 2015, Gazprom and Egyptian company EGAS signed ...
... Russia, the Turks have been actively building up their presence in almost all sectors. The country understands that Russia’s position largely determines the level of its presence in a number of regions, including Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the Black Sea region, etc. Russia and Turkey interact effectively within the framework of international formats to negotiate settlements in Syria, Libya, Karabakh.
Turkey is seeking to play a mediating role in the Ukrainian crisis. Ankara sees this as an opportunity to strengthen its position in the international arena. As an initiator and mediator in implementing ...
