The achieved results and existing limitations create an incentive for Washington and Moscow to discuss a potential peace. Nevertheless, both sides retain the material resources necessary to sustain the confrontation
The negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump marked a step toward resolving the Ukrainian conflict. However, the outcomes remain uncertain. A reversal could occur at any moment, given the multitude of unresolved, accumulated issues. The flawed legacy of the European security...
... systems. Yet, the regime governing missile and nuclear weapons continued to deteriorate. In 2019, the Trump administration initiated the withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The INF crisis was preceded by years of mutual accusations, fuelled by new technological realities, the collapse of other arms control mechanisms (including the ABM Treaty), suspicions of new system developments, and the presence of such systems in third countries, notably China. During Trump’s first ...
Paradoxically, despite Britain’s exit from the European Union, she now finds herself playing a leading role in European security
Britain’s traditionally hostile attitude towards Russia—starting at least as early as 1791, when Prime Minister Pitt the Younger lambasted Russia for wishing to carve up the Ottoman Empire, continuing with the Crimean War and then the Great Game—has again come to the fore with the Ukrainian conflict. Sir Keir Starmer must therefore be in a bit of a tangle, given the momentous...
... concentrate resources, mobilize its population, and sustain a high tempo of military operations for three years.
The list of liabilities, however, is equally significant. First and foremost, Ukraine has suffered enormous human losses. Hundreds of thousands of men have been killed or wounded. The loss of human capital has been exacerbated by the large number of refugees and émigrés, many of whom are reluctant to return. Given Ukraine’s already challenging demographic situation following the collapse ...
... bloodshed
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rigid stance has left his country with limited choices, pushing Ukraine further into crisis. His approach to diplomacy has been confrontational, straining relations even with key allies. His refusal to negotiate and his aggressive posture have closed doors that could have led to a peaceful resolution of the ongoing conflict.
Zelenskyy’s Background and Rise to Power
Andrey Kortunov:
A Failed Journey to the West
Born on January 25, 1978, in ...
If the Transatlantic alliance were to fade away, everybody around should be interested in making its deconstruction as orderly and as smooth as possible
The famous “Journey to the West” is definitely something much more than just another classical novel of Chinese literature, written by Wu Cheng'en during the Ming dynasty. It is also a great symbol of spiritual enlightenment and self-cultivation, fighting against inner demons and discovering one’s destiny; it is a story about such timeless concepts...
... build new long-range standoff (
LRSO
) cruise missiles for strategic aviation.
Prospects for strategic stability
Zhao Huasheng, Andrey Kortunov:
Prepare for the Worst and Strive for the Best. Russia’s and China’s Perceptions of Developments in International Security
The concept of strategic stability has many different interpretations, with some broadening it to include the idea of comprehensive security, which inevitably shifts the discussion into the realm of political rhetoric. In contrast,...
... Agreement implementation and international monitoring is not very reassuring, and the line of contact today is much longer than it was back in 2015. To put together a well-trained and properly equipped international monitoring mission of tens of thousands uniformed men and women would be next to impossible, at least within the time framework suggested by the US Administration. Needless to say, Russia would hardly accept a EU/NATO peacekeeping mission on its territory.
Territorial compromises
Trump ...
The next four years are likely to be a difficult period for the US foreign policy
We know pretty well that the US foreign policy has always been and will continue to be bipartisan; Republicans and Democrats usually have many more disagreements on domestic than on international matters. It is also evident that a very important role in the US foreign policy making belongs to the so called Deep State—a powerful stratum of senior non-elected bureaucrats occupying the corner-offices in most important...
Will Russia continue its “business as usual” aimed at maintaining the existing status-quo or will it be forced to review and to revise its positions towards Israel, Palestinians, Iran and its main partners in the Arab world?
The spectacular comeback of Donald Trump to the White House will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the US overall international positioning, as well as on specific dimensions of the US approaches to various regions of the world. Of course, the US foreign policy has a bipartisan...
