... Yemen, over 16.5 million in Syria, and more than 3 million in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In Lebanon, at least 3.7 million people, or about two-thirds of the population, needed assistance before the fighting intensified.
Ivan Bocharov:
Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Regional Implications
In recent months, the humanitarian situation in the conflict zone between the State of Israel and Hezbollah has deteriorated. Attacks on Israeli settlements by the Shiite movement have resulted in the evacuation of at least 60 000 Israelis.
Already turbulent situation in Lebanon was aggravated by the escalation in autumn. In recent weeks,...
... for the post-conflict reconstruction of the country, or at least on the approval by the UN Security Council of a road-map for promoting state-building in Syria. Some twenty years ago, great powers were able to put together the so-called Quartet on the Middle East (Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations) to jointly address the challenge of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the end of the day, the Quartet has failed to deliver a lasting solution to the problem. These days, a Syrian Quartet, Quintet, or any other similar grouping looks completely out of touch with geopolitical realities.
However,...
... aimed at maintaining the existing status-quo or will it be forced to review and to revise its positions towards Israel, Palestinians, Iran and its main partners in the Arab world? Let us have a look at the most important pieces of the rich and diverse Middle East mosaic, namely—on Israel, Palestine, Iran and the Arab Gulf states.
Israel
The Russian-Israeli relations started experiencing problems long before the US 2024 elections. In particular, the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had a significant ...
... East conflict, including informal ones. From this point of view, they are capable of building a more flexible policy compared to Iran or the United States. Their room to maneuver is limited due to the high level of cooperation with their allies in the Middle East.
After Iran's missile strikes on Israel in April and October 2024, Jordan was reported to have been involved in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. According to some news agencies, Tehran aimed to send a message to Gulf Arab states, warning them of the consequences of allowing ...
... not only can a vertical escalation be expected, as observed today between Israel and Hezbollah, but also a horizontal escalation may take place, with a potential of expanding the war zone.
How will the fighting affect the humanitarian situation in the Middle East?
Tensions along the Lebanese-Israeli border have created certain humanitarian problems over the past year. At least
60,000
Israeli border community residents have been evacuated due to Hezbollah shelling northern Israel.
Over the past few months, the humanitarian situation has also ...
... regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return to Their Sheaths
Limits to escalation
But in the 11 months that have passed since the Hamas attack on Israel, no major war has broken out in the Middle East. Israel, as predicted, is stuck in Gaza for long. The death toll among Palestinian civilians has passed 40,000, with the number of wounded approaching 100,000, and the number of refugees and internally displaced persons now in the seven figures. For the ...
... Europe. But a country that thinks about itself and its future will never make decisions the consequences of which could lead to its destruction. Not everyone is Ukraine.
So far, the situation regarding the independence of the leading countries in the Middle East looks optimistic. Even Israel, which has traditionally been linked to the US through a wide range of political and economic contacts, cannot be seen as a mere representative of American interests. This explains the irritation that the Israeli authorities often cause in Washington....
The two rivals’ jabs at each other are rapidly increasing in both number and intensity
The situation in the Middle East, where the aspirations of Iran and Israel have once again collided, is paradoxical in that there is no way out. Both sides would like to put a stop to the other’s gallop, but this is impossible without disastrous consequences for themselves. There are many reasons for this situation,...
... perhaps other targets in the West. It is still unclear when Iran will launch its threatening assault against Israel, or what form those strikes would take.
Hamna Ghias Sheikh:
Shadows of Escalation: The Ripple Effects of Ismail Haniyeh's Assassination on Middle Eastern Stability
While Iran’s recent April 13 attack on Israel marked a significant escalation for the two nations—over 300 drones and a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles were launched—almost all incoming drones and missiles were intercepted with little to no damage. The lack of a damaging response ...
... to Haniyeh's killing has been swift and direct. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas since its inception in 1987, has provided extensive training and funding to the group, supplying them with rockets, missiles, and drones. Additionally, according to
Middle Eastern intelligence officials
, Iran has played a crucial role in helping Hamas construct an intricate network of underground tunnels in Gaza, designed to protect their equipment and infrastructure from Israeli attacks. Hamas has also received significant financial support from Iran, along with technical assistance to produce rockets and drones equipped with advanced guidance systems. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has therefore
vowed retaliation
...
