... assassinating of General Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, in Baghdad in 2020. Given the unpredictability of the 47-th US Commander-in-Chief, it might still be too early to properly assess the likely shifts in the US approaches to the Middle East region. However, some changes are easy to predict.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics. RIAC Report
First, the US support for Israelis going to get even stronger than it has been under the Joe Biden Administration,...
Arab countries are not ready to significantly transform their policies and become actively involved in the conflict in the Middle East
Over fifty years ago, in October 1973, the largest energy crisis in history erupted. It was provoked by an oil embargo imposed by members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), as well as Egypt and Syria. The ...
A vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war
In the autumn of 2024, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. Sporadic exchanges between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which had been observed since the October 7, 2023, attacks, evolved into active hostilities. On September 17–18, 2024, pagers and other means of communication ...
... state-building and political modernization in the Arab countries. The participants also addressed aspects related to the current state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the role of extra-regional actors.
The meeting was attended by leading experts on the Middle East. Irina Zvyagelskaya, Head of Center for the Middle East Studies of the IMEMO RAS, RIAC Member; Alexander Yakovlev, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of the IOS RAS; Andrey Evseenko, Deputy Director ...
On September 5, 2024, the delegation of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy (UAE) visited the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
On September 5, 2024, the delegation of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy (UAE) visited the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
During the meeting, RIAC Director General Ivan Timofeev told the delegation about the main scopes of activity of the Council. The participants discussed the prospects of cooperation between RIAC and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic...
Nobody wanted to fight
When the Israeli–Palestinian conflict escalated dramatically in early October 2023, many observers jumped to a grim conclusion that, from then onward, the Middle East was hurtling at an ever-increasing speed toward another major regional conflict. The military operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip was to be followed by fierce hostilities in the West Bank, then by a large-scale border ...
Soviet influence in the Middle East was ultimately useless, and now it seems Washington is heading down the same path
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has been going on for several weeks now. However, none of the parties directly – or, indeed, indirectly – involved ...
The two rivals’ jabs at each other are rapidly increasing in both number and intensity
The situation in the Middle East, where the aspirations of Iran and Israel have once again collided, is paradoxical in that there is no way out. Both sides would like to put a stop to the other’s gallop, but this is impossible without disastrous consequences for themselves....
... unfortunately always be a source of bad news, but the great powers aren’t going to risk a broader conflict over it
The elaborate assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran will inevitably lead to another round of acute international tension in the Middle East. We do not yet know the exact nature of the retaliatory strike that the Iranian leadership has promised Israel. But it is likely to follow in the near future. This has many observers genuinely worried about the wider implications for the region ...
... perhaps other targets in the West. It is still unclear when Iran will launch its threatening assault against Israel, or what form those strikes would take.
Hamna Ghias Sheikh:
Shadows of Escalation: The Ripple Effects of Ismail Haniyeh's Assassination on Middle Eastern Stability
While Iran’s recent April 13 attack on Israel marked a significant escalation for the two nations—over 300 drones and a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles were launched—almost all incoming drones and missiles were ...
