... resulted in a prolonged and catastrophic conflict. The current discussion surrounding the potential occupation of Gaza raises concerns about a similarly protracted engagement, with significant repercussions for both regional and global stability. The Middle East is already a highly volatile region, and any attempts to alter the existing dynamics in Gaza could catalyse a broader conflict, drawing in not only Israel and Palestine but also neighbouring states and international powers. Additionally, the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq serves as a salient case study. While initial military operations successfully led to the ousting of Saddam Hussein, the subsequent fallout manifested ...
... aimed at maintaining the existing status-quo or will it be forced to review and to revise its positions towards Israel, Palestinians, Iran and its main partners in the Arab world? Let us have a look at the most important pieces of the rich and diverse Middle East mosaic, namely—on Israel, Palestine, Iran and the Arab Gulf states.
Israel
The Russian-Israeli relations started experiencing problems long before the US 2024 elections. In particular, the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had a significant ...
Arab countries are not ready to significantly transform their policies and become actively involved in the conflict in the Middle East
Over fifty years ago, in October 1973, the largest energy crisis in history erupted. It was provoked by an oil embargo imposed by members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), as well as Egypt and Syria. The ...
A vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war
In the autumn of 2024, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. Sporadic exchanges between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which had been observed since the October 7, 2023, attacks, evolved into active hostilities. On September 17–18, 2024, pagers and other means of communication ...
... on Israel and its allies following the Yom Kippur War in October 1973. Efforts to further promote the Abraham Accords between Israel and the conservative Arab monarchies continued, albeit fading from the public eye. The only consistent supporters of Palestine were the stubborn Yemeni Houthis, who have attacked foreign ships in the Red Sea. However, it was Egypt—not Israel—that suffered the most from these attacks, losing nearly half of its revenues from the Suez Canal.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics. RIAC Report
Reasons for restraint
Although the trigger of a major regional war was pulled almost a year ago, the bomb itself never exploded. This situation calls for an explanation, particularly to assess ...
... positions in the ICJ and UN, suggesting that the US can no longer control the discourse surrounding Palestine. China’s efforts in mediating the internal reconciliation is a part of global efforts to reasonably reshape what is included in the agenda on Palestine.
Fourthly, the move signifies the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The US has played a dominant role in the Middle East since the end of the Cold War. While the US has monopolized the general narrative regarding Palestine, it also controls issues on the security agenda for the Gulf region, depicting Iran ...
... to counter a resurgent China in East Asia, nobody in Washington could have expected that the U.S. would be returning to the Middle East soon, albeit this time to vie for influence with China. Yet this is precisely what happened last March when China ... ... continues to ignore the elephant in the room and the plight of the Palestinians. Hostilities will resume periodically between Palestine and Israel, which means that permanent peace in the region remains impossible.
While the U.S. was initially supportive ...
... said, there have been many protests in Paris, London, New York, in Canadian and Australian cities. Demonstrations in support of Palestine have been held in many Western countries that officially support Israel. And not only refugees or ethnic Palestinians ... ... pro-Israeli.
The U.S. has always supported Israel. And every American president has seen it one of his main goals to engage in the Middle East settlement. Just think of numerous program announcements, negotiations, peace summits, including those that succeeded!...
... Israel would somehow contribute to the consolidation of the Palestinian society, they should be disappointed. Divisions within Palestine persist along many lines: Hamas and Fatah, radicals and technocrats, Gaza and the West Bank, the outgoing and a newer ... ... next year, and, as one can easily guess, the bitter struggle for his political legacy has already begun.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics. RIAC Report
The situation in Israel looks more certain and predictable, but this ...
Many developments that significantly impacted the destinies of the regional players, non-regional actors, and many people around the world have unfolded during the year that followed the publication of our paper titled “The Middle East and the Future of a Polycentric World” (February 2023).
Many of these developments appeared to continue the positive trends that we saw a year or two earlier. Saudi Arabia – Iran relations were officially normalised. Syria’s membership ...
