... two-thirds of the population, needed assistance before the fighting intensified.
Ivan Bocharov:
Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Regional Implications
In recent months, the humanitarian situation in the conflict zone between the State of Israel and Hezbollah has deteriorated. Attacks on Israeli settlements by the Shiite movement have resulted in the evacuation of at least 60 000 Israelis.
Already turbulent situation in Lebanon was aggravated by the escalation in autumn. In recent weeks, dozens of ...
A vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war
In the autumn of 2024, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. Sporadic exchanges between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which had been observed since the October 7, 2023, attacks, evolved into active hostilities. On September 17–18, 2024, pagers and other means of communication belonging to Hezbollah members were detonated inside Lebanon....
... previous years (28 people were killed there in 2020, 86 in 2021, and 146 in 2022), but it is clear now that the West Bank has not become a second Gaza today, nor is it likely to become one overnight.
Along the line of confrontation between the IDF and Hezbollah forces on the Israeli–Lebanese border, nothing extraordinary has occurred so far either, except for a rocket strike at a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on July 27, which killed 12 Druze teenagers. True, Hezbollah ...
... Jerusalem. At the same time, there is a very tense information background in Israel as it conducts two parallel military operations: in the south, in the Gaza Strip, and on the northern border with Lebanon, the scene of a military confrontation with Hezbollah. As for Ramallah, there are no major clashes there. Yet, the Israeli army conducts regular raids in the Palestinian territories after it receives information about the presence of radical elements supporting Hamas in some areas of the West Bank....
... have contributed to increased anxiety, humiliation, and a sense of despair and helplessness, even as the COVID-19 infection is surging again at worrying levels. The “reconstruction” will be very hard from a psychological angle as well.
How does Hezbollah fit into this context?
Hezbollah is facing major challenges. The group is the stakeholder with the largest share of parliamentary seats and has been targeted by large sectors of the “revolution,” even from within its own constituency. Many ...
... between the United States and Russia — not to topple the regime in Syria, but rather to force it to make changes at home and return to the framework and requirements of UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254, or to change its position on Iran and Hezbollah, a topic that has
attracted
much attention.
Two: The Caesar Act and “Reproducing” War
The United States and its allies are trying to benefit from the “lessons” of the wars of the last decade and investigate why they were unable to fully ...
On July 4, 2018, in Brussels hosted an international expert meeting focusing on "Israel, Iran and Hezbollah: Towards a New Escalation?"
On July 4, 2018, in Brussels hosted an international expert meeting focusing on "Israel, Iran and Hezbollah: Towards a New Escalation?"
The meeting was organized by the International Crisis Group ...
... destruction of the State of Israel, which is a threat to its existential security. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) feels that deterrence is the best strategy to discourage states (such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and substate actors (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic State [Da’esh], Jabhat Fatah al-Sham [al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra], etc.) from attacking its country. The IDF will not change its deterrence strategy for state and substate actors. This is because ...
... important for the Syrian state to remain secular.
Iran’s interests are mainly connected with the opportunity to transport materiel and human resources via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, in support of its immediate allies in the Islamic resistance (primarily Hezbollah). Tehran views Syria as the central piece in this allied structure. In the future, these countries might be used as transit states for Iranian oil and gas. There are, however, other motives behind Tehran’s activities, namely its desire to ...
... Regional Issues
On November 4, 2017, Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri announced his resignation on Saudi television. In his speech, Hariri
accused Iran
of spreading discord in the region, motivated by hatred for Arabs, and called Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement “Iran’s arm in Lebanon and other Arab countries” (meaning, of course, Syria).
The Lebanese politician, who holds Saudi citizenship and owns
Saudi Oger
(a construction company that declared bankruptcy in the summer), arrived in ...
