... Yemen, over 16.5 million in Syria, and more than 3 million in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In Lebanon, at least 3.7 million people, or about two-thirds of the population, needed assistance before the fighting intensified.
Ivan Bocharov:
Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Regional Implications
In recent months, the humanitarian situation in the conflict zone between the State of Israel and Hezbollah has deteriorated. Attacks on Israeli settlements by the Shiite movement have resulted in the evacuation of at least 60 000 Israelis.
Already turbulent situation in Lebanon was aggravated by the escalation in autumn. In recent weeks, dozens of ...
A vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war
In the autumn of 2024, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. Sporadic exchanges between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which had been observed since the October 7, 2023, attacks, evolved into active hostilities. On September 17–18, 2024, pagers and other means of communication belonging to Hezbollah members were detonated inside Lebanon....
...
Limits to escalation
But in the 11 months that have passed since the Hamas attack on Israel, no major war has broken out in the Middle East. Israel, as predicted, is stuck in Gaza for long. The death toll among Palestinian civilians has passed 40,000, with ... ... not become a second Gaza today, nor is it likely to become one overnight.
Along the line of confrontation between the IDF and Hezbollah forces on the Israeli–Lebanese border, nothing extraordinary has occurred so far either, except for a rocket strike ...
... example, during the Second Lebanon War, then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy brokered on behalf of the EU. So, the assistance of an extra-regional actor was instrumental in reaching a ceasefire agreement and resolving the crisis between Israel and Hezbollah.
Another case study is the work of the Middle East Quartet, which included the U.S., Russia, the UN and the EU. There are different opinions about its effectiveness, but it functioned nonetheless. Members of the Middle East Quartet were in contact with both the Israelis and the Palestinians....
... some Sunni jihadist rebels. Israel is willing to ally itself with Salafist rebels in order to prevent the “Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis” from proclaiming victory in the Syrian Civil War. Whether this proves to be a wise decision for Israel, remains ... ... al-Assad; rather it sees him as the only alternative to an Islamic fundamentalist state. Russia’s main objective is that the Middle East remains stable while Syria was heading towards anything but stability. There are two reasons why Russia entered the ...
... Ukraine-style. Many observers predict these, or similar, scenarios for the Middle East, which is already permeated by chronic conflicts, border disputes and territories populated largely by religious, ethnic and other minorities.
Do you see any role in the Middle East settlement for Russia?
The Iranian issue remains of paramount importance for Israel, thousands or maybe even dozens of thousands of the latest missiles targeted by the Hezbollah against northern Israel from Lebanon, as well as the threat of shelling from the Gaza Strip.
Israel relies on Russia in its search for amenable solutions on Iran's nuclear program and the prevention of modern weapons supplies to the already ...
