... today is not just a problem for Syrians. It is an international issue, and regional and global powers have a responsibility to eventually help Syria achieve long-lasting peace and stability.
Possible scenarios for Syria
Vitaly Naumkin, Vasily Kuznetsov:
Syria: The Crossroad of Middle Eastern Uncertainty
As of now, it can be safely argued that at least the dominant public narrative is that Syria must remain united. It resonates with the approaches of both regional countries and external actors. However, there is also a risk ...
... choices.
At the systemic level, the region faces two key goals which are to break free from the vicious cycle of entrenched interpretations of reality and to restore balance between formal and informal institutions, thereby strengthening statehood.
Syria: The Crossroad of Middle Eastern Uncertainty
... tragedy. In fact, there has been no personal chemistry between the former Syrian leader and Vladimir Putin. Still, the Syrian regime change constitutes a new strategic challenge for the Kremlin and the name of the game that Moscow has to play now in Syria and in the Middle East at large is damage limitation rather than anything else.
A lot in defining a new approach to Syria depends on the likely evolution of the former political opposition that is now fully in power in Damascus. This rather amorphous coalition includes ...
... the region remains difficult; there are
3.7 million
refugees in Turkey alone, of whom 3.1 million are Syrians.
More than one million Lebanese have already fled their homes, while
100,000
Lebanese and Syrian refugees have already moved to neighboring Syria. The number of refugees could increase significantly in the coming weeks and months.
What impact will the conflict have on business activity in the region?
The conflict in the Middle East is already having a negative impact on businesses in the region. The fighting is destroying infrastructure in some countries. Iran's strike on Israel has led to airspace closures in several countries in the region. In the short term, a reduction ...
... festivals, and bilateral days of culture.
Lebanon cannot be described as China’s main focus, but Lebanon is still of great interest to Beijing due to its geographical location even if there are more strategically “useful” partners in the Greater Middle East and in the Mashriq (for example, Syria and Iraq attract much more Chinese investment). The ports of Tripoli and Beirut may be more actively used by China in the future as trade hubs in the Mediterranean, and thus might be extremely helpful for the BRI further development.
The two sides ...
... associations in order to implement the [sic] Russia’s Collective Security Concept for the Persian Gulf Region, viewing the implementation of this initiative as an important step toward a sustainable and comprehensive normalization of the situation in the Middle East.”[
2
]
Russian-Iranian Relations
Igor Matveev:
Settling the Syrian Conflict Amid the Ukrainian Crisis: Political Economy Perspective
One of the most notable repercussions of the crisis in Eastern Europe has been the strengthening of the Russian-Iranian partnership. Over the last year, there has been a visible ...
The goal of the round table was to discuss the dynamics of quadrilateral cooperation in the context of regional trends in the Middle East. The meeting was attended by leading experts from Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria
On October 18, 2023, a closed round table “Cooperation between Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria in the Context of Regional Dynamics” was held. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in cooperation with Institute for Iran & Eurasia studies ...
Report No. 85 / 2023
Report No. 85 / 2023
The Taliban’s (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) rise to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 and the conflict in Ukraine have both had an impact on regional trends in the Middle East. This report sheds light on the transformation of new elements in Middle Eastern state relations and examines the changing role of key players in the region. It analyses the impact that the events in Afghanistan and Ukraine have had on the ...
... maintaining security and peace in the Middle East, expanding alternative regional formats of cooperation in economy, finance, trade, high technology and education, developing and strengthening the sovereignty and independence of the countries of the Middle East and creating alternative platforms of negotiations in the region. It is also worth boosting interaction between China and Russia to achieve a diplomatic and political solution to the Syrian conflict and develop a post-war reconstruction plan for the country.
Ivan Bocharov, RIAC Program Coordinator, and Jin Liangxiang, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for West Asian and African Studies of SIIS, moderated the round table.
From ...
... military operation without complying with the terms on M4 in Idlib, it may cost Russia major reputational losses in the eyes of its Syrian ally, and these losses are to be avoided. The U.S. may also suffer similar losses as it assumes responsibility for supporting ... ... calling it America’s close ally. After the U.S. has essentially fled Afghanistan, another such case will result in the U.S. Middle Eastern allies totally losing confidence in America as a security guarantor. Washington should not be stripped of its “crown ...
