Kiev is the most vulnerable party in any development of the situation—both radical and basic. The question is the price for all participants. The price for Ukraine will be the highest
Russia and the West are going through another stage of military-political escalation. Its immediate indicator was Ukraine’s use of American and British missile systems to strike Russian territory, the emergence of Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine, the subsequent destruction of Ukraine’s Yuzhmash plant by a medium-range...
... conflict and the aggravation of the U.S.-China relations. Bipolar, multipolar and other models of international relations were considered, as well as the prospects for resuming Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. In addition, the participants discussed scenarios for possible escalation of the conflict on the territory of Ukraine and ways to prevent it. The discussion was moderated by Sergey Rogov, Academic Director of RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies (ISKRAN), RIAC Member. Alexei Gromyko,...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February...
In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails
A Retrospective Introduction
In 2008–2012 we published results of a long-term research project on the alternative scenarios of Russia’s future in several publications including ‘
On Russia: Perspectives from the Engelsberg Seminar 2008
’ from the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The project purported to make two major steps: first, to generate scenarios ...
... directly announced a set of restrictive measures that would be taken against Russia in the event of war. Apparently, another round of escalation is coming. In the near future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from several premises.
Igor Ivanov:
Is War Inevitable?
It is inevitable that amid peaceful conditions, Ukraine will pursue an anti-Russian course. An outwardly loose but ...
.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia is preparing a military campaign against Ukraine. The supposed goal is to break the deadlock of the Minsk Agreements, to impose further coexistence conditions on Kiev and its Western partners, to prevent...
... able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade
In November 2020, the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing ...
..., which offered economic and military assistance while involved in Afghanistan. Finally, historical and ethnic ties play an important role: amongst others, Tajikistan with Afghan Tajiks, Uzbekistan with Uzbeks, Turkmenistan with Turkmen.
Development Scenarios for the Situation in Afghanistan
The multitude of factors that could affect the situation in Afghanistan make any forecasting a challenge. As for the domestic political situation, there are two likely scenarios, which could be called “A Strong ...
